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5 - The ICC’s Track Record

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 November 2025

Daniel Krcmaric
Affiliation:
Northwestern University, Illinois
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Summary

Chapter 5 probes the ICC’s track record over the past two decades. Specifically, I examine whether claims of anti-American bias hold up in light of the ICC’s history of investigations. I assess the degree, if any, of anti-American bias at the ICC with a statistical analysis. I start with a global sample of civilian killings that approximates the universe of situations the ICC might plausibly investigate. I then use geolocated data on all US foreign military bases to examine how the presence of American troops in a country affects the likelihood of the ICC launching an investigation. Contrary to the common narrative of anti-American bias, the estimated effects of US military bases are statistically indistinguishable from zero and substantively negligible. Simply put, there is no evidence that ICC investigations target America’s military.

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