Published online by Cambridge University Press: 01 May 2026
Chapter 3 takes a closer look at the mechanics of Democratic Drain. More specifically, it asks when demigrants are likely to depart. Focusing on 127 countries worldwide, it finds that people’s interest in emigrating spikes in the immediate aftermath of national elections when an authoritarian-leaning party or ruler is elected to public office. Importantly, this effect is limited only to people who hold expectations of democratic norms and institutional integrity. Those who question the honesty of the election, suspect corruption among public officials, or feel that freedom of speech is constrained are significantly more likely to say they would like to leave when faced with the future deconsolidation of their country’s democratic institutions. This shows the way that elections are precipitating events for individuals disappointed by the results and concerned about the future of their civil life. Previously unnoticed over the ebb and flow of electoral cycles, Democratic Drain removes the people who are most likely to voice their dissatisfaction and most likely to demand institutional integrity in less democratic spaces.
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