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2 - The China Threat

How Do Taiwanese Citizens React to Beijing’s Military Coercion?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 July 2026

By
T. Y. Wang and
Su-feng Cheng
Edited by
Steve Chan
Steve Chan
Affiliation:
University of Colorado Boulder
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Summary

China’s emergence as a major power poses challenges to the world in multiple dimensions, including its coercive approach to Taiwan. Beijing has intensified its military pressure on Taipei in recent years. Its goals are to discourage the island citizens’ support for Taiwan’s independence and to compel them to accept the one-China principle implied in the 1992 Consensus. Are these coercive measures successful in influencing the island citizens’ attitudes? Employing the theory of threat, this chapter analyzes recently collected panel survey data. It shows that Beijing’s coercive tactics have been counterproductive. Rather than coercing the island’s citizens into submission, Chinese leaders’ menacing tactics only invite resentment. Their coercive measures are unable to discourage Taiwan citizens’ support for independence and furthermore weaken the latter’s support for the 1992 Consensus. This chapter demonstrates that China’s coercive influence is far more limited than some people think, and it has backfired in view of Beijing’s intended outcomes. The current trajectory of the cross-Strait relationship thus suggests a challenging outlook.

Keywords

ThreatInfluencethe 1992 ConsensusTaiwanpanel data analysishybrid model

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Chapter
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Gauging China's Influence Abroad
Theory and Practice
 , pp. 28 - 62
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2026

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