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1 - Orientation

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  22 May 2026

James Burridge
Affiliation:
University of Portsmouth
Nick Tosh
Affiliation:
University of Galway
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Summary

This chapter provides an overview of the types of inference problems we address and the different approaches to solving them. We focus on risky inference: drawing conclusions, learning and making predictions in situations where certainty is impossible. Predicting a response from one or more predictors using past data is called supervised learning. When the response is continuous, the task is regression; when it is categorical, the task is classification. In unsupervised learning, there is no response variable. Instead, the goal is to find patterns or structure in data, as in density estimation, clustering and dimensionality reduction. In both supervised and unsupervised contexts, overfitting occurs when we model data in excessive detail and fail to distinguish systematic patterns from noise; underfitting occurs when our models are too simple to capture systematic patterns. Probability is a key tool for tackling risky inference, with frequentist and Bayesian interpretations motivating distinct approaches. Finally, large neural networks have proven remarkably effective in both supervised and unsupervised tasks, often avoiding overfitting despite containing billions of parameters.

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  • Orientation
  • James Burridge, University of Portsmouth, Nick Tosh, University of Galway
  • Book: Inference in Statistical Modelling and Machine Learning
  • Online publication: 22 May 2026
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009630696.002
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  • Orientation
  • James Burridge, University of Portsmouth, Nick Tosh, University of Galway
  • Book: Inference in Statistical Modelling and Machine Learning
  • Online publication: 22 May 2026
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009630696.002
Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • Orientation
  • James Burridge, University of Portsmouth, Nick Tosh, University of Galway
  • Book: Inference in Statistical Modelling and Machine Learning
  • Online publication: 22 May 2026
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009630696.002
Available formats
×