The Strategic Embeddedness of Islamist Civil Wars
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 09 July 2026
Chapter 2 develops the theoretical foundation for why Islamist civil wars are especially intractable. We question both essentialist and instrumentalist perspectives on Islamist armed conflicts. Instead, we develop an argument based on a bargaining perspective when explaining the intractability of Islamist conflicts, which we refer to as the strategic embeddedness of Islamist civil wars. The thrust of our argument is that Islamist civil wars are embedded in a particular strategic environment – engulfed in a transnational network of groups and actors supporting the rebels and, in parallel, entangled in a web of various intergovernmental commitments and support structures backing the government side. Such international support tends to create a high degree of uncertainty in terms of the extent and nature of support, making it harder for the parties to assess one another’s resolve and capabilities, which in turn makes these conflicts less likely to end. We explain how the transnational dimension of Islamist civil wars affects the level of uncertainty in conflicts and how it can decrease the likelihood of termination, increase the risk of recurrence, and reduce the chances of conflict resolution.
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