Published online by Cambridge University Press: aN Invalid Date NaN
This chapter provides evidence that embedded informality restricts one pathway out of the weak-state trap by constraining programmatic claim-making. More historical evidence from Senegal illustrates the rarity of organized claim-making by the informal sector and shows that prior attempts have been short-lived due to the inequalities and fractionalization within the sector. An original in-person survey of formal and informal sector members in Dakar from 2017 then directly tests implications of the argument that informality reduces expectations of state capacity and the ability to coordinate around shared preferences for public goods, sampling economic agents who would be most-likely candidates for mobilizing around programmatic demands. Specifically, I exploit variation in the irregularity of actors’ fiscal relationship to the state to understand how it shapes demand for programmatic politics. Finally, a phone survey of formal and informal firms in the run-up to the 2022 local elections provides evidence that the informal sector is less likely to vote for candidates who have a more programmatic platform.
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