Published online by Cambridge University Press: 07 August 2026
This chapter introduces qualitative causal inference and explanation, a hybrid method that integrates qualitative case-study analysis with elements of quantitative causal inference. Traditional process tracing emphasizes explanation but risks false positives, while identification-based inference secures validity but offers little guidance for explaining particular outcomes. The chapter argues that adapting core ideas from causal inference – such as identification and bias – into a qualitative idiom can strengthen within-case analysis. It defines qualitative causal inference as a strategy for distinguishing true causal influences from spurious associations and sets out criteria for valid unit-level inference. By combining explanation with valid inference, this approach aims to produce more credible and more satisfying accounts of complex outcomes such as democratic transitions, revolutions, and wars.
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