Published online by Cambridge University Press: 07 August 2026
This concluding chapter synthesizes the book’s central argument: that valid causal inference and satisfactory explanation in the social sciences require the integration of two distinct models of reasoning. Building on the contrast between “effects of causes” (reasoning forward) and “causes of effects” (reasoning backward), it critiques the detective model of inference for its vulnerability to false positives and identification-based causal inference for its limitations in explanatory adequacy. The proposed framework of qualitative causal inference bridges these approaches by constructing qualitative identification strategies that use causal graphs, hypothetical interventions, invariant mechanisms, and event-history maps to eliminate bias-inducing paths and justify valid unit-level causal inferences. The chapter highlights the advantages of this approach: reducing false positives, grounding explanations in valid causal claims, and enhancing explanatory adequacy through depth, density, and relevance. It further connects individual-level inference to knowledge accumulation via standard explanatory patterns, which unify multiple case explanations while preserving their particularities. Acknowledging limitations, the chapter emphasizes the prescriptive and forward-looking nature of the framework. While current illustrations are reconstructive rather than deeply contextual, the approach establishes new criteria and tools that future work can refine in practice. In doing so, it offers a path forward to overcome methodological divides and foster cumulative, reliable knowledge in the social sciences.
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