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7 - The Sunset: Deindustrialisation and Post-Industrial Decline

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 May 2026

Jean-François Mercure
Affiliation:
University of Exeter
Hector Pollitt
Affiliation:
University of Cambridge
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Summary

Following our discussion of the role of the green transition in enabling economic growth, we explain in this chapter the social upheaval that low-carbon technological change will inevitably entail for the regions and social groups that stand to lose. This is about deindustrialisation and post-industrial decline that some regions of the world will face with the end of fossil fuels. Fossil fuels are an inefficient and very labour-intensive way to power the global economy compared to the intelligent use of renewables and electrical applications that the green transition will deliver. However, a zero-carbon transition would imply that lots of people lose their jobs extracting, transforming, delivering and using fossil fuels and other high-carbon occupations. These jobs are typically well paid and highly concentrated geographically, which leads to very steep and abrupt socio-economic challenges. We look back at past coal transitions in the UK and across the world to try to foresee what the end of oil and gas could mean.

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