Key Points for Policy and Decision Makers, and Tourism Operators

• Those working in tourism are mainly concerned about climate-related risks. At the same time tourism is a very energy-intensive activity that contributes to GHG emissions and the build-up of these gases in the atmosphere.

• Interventions or responses designed to reduce climate-related risks fall into two categories: mitigation and adaptation. Mitigation includes initiatives for reducing GHG emissions, whereas adaptation refers to interventions that reduce the vulnerability to climate change impacts.

• Tourism has been described as a system; earlier system approaches assumed a linear nature of tourism, which failed to capture the true complexity of tourism. The open and complex nature of both the climate and tourism systems makes it extremely difficult to predict, manage and control future changes.

• There are several key agents involved in tourism, namely the private sector, public sector, 'destinations' (with numerous agents) and tourists themselves. Interest groups are also important agents in tourism.

• It is useful to analyse the tourism agents and try to understand certain behaviours, relationships and developments. Especially for short-term planning, the pragmatic approach is to assume some sort of linearity and predictability. However, the discussion on complexity and chaos should raise awareness among professionals that they cannot control or predict tourism's evolution.

• The climate system has been modified by humans as a result of GHG emissions. These 'trap' solar energy and raise the temperature of the Earth's surface. This raised temperature is termed the natural greenhouse effect. Climate projections are associated with considerable uncertainties.

• One manifestation of uncertainty is the ability of the climate system to undergo abrupt and pervasive changes; such changes are termed 'surprises', and present a significant challenge to tourism and other policy makers and planners.