Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of figures
- List of tables
- List of contributors
- Acknowledgements
- 1 Introduction: an interdisciplinary approach to Water, Life and Civilisation
- Part I Past, present and future climate
- Part II The palaeoenvironmental record
- Part III Hydrological studies of the Jordan Valley
- 10 The impacts of climate change on rainfall-runoff in the upper River Jordan: methodology and first projections
- 11 Modelling Dead Sea levels and rainfall: past, present and future
- 12 The hydrology of the Wadi Faynan
- 13 Future projections of water availability in a semi-arid region of the eastern Mediterranean: a case study of Wadi Hasa, Jordan
- Part IV Human settlement, climate change, hydrology and water management
- Part V Palaeoeconomies and developing archaeological methodologies
- Part VI Society, economy and water today
- Part VII Conclusions
- Index
- Plate section
- References
11 - Modelling Dead Sea levels and rainfall: past, present and future
from Part III - Hydrological studies of the Jordan Valley
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 26 April 2011
Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of figures
- List of tables
- List of contributors
- Acknowledgements
- 1 Introduction: an interdisciplinary approach to Water, Life and Civilisation
- Part I Past, present and future climate
- Part II The palaeoenvironmental record
- Part III Hydrological studies of the Jordan Valley
- 10 The impacts of climate change on rainfall-runoff in the upper River Jordan: methodology and first projections
- 11 Modelling Dead Sea levels and rainfall: past, present and future
- 12 The hydrology of the Wadi Faynan
- 13 Future projections of water availability in a semi-arid region of the eastern Mediterranean: a case study of Wadi Hasa, Jordan
- Part IV Human settlement, climate change, hydrology and water management
- Part V Palaeoeconomies and developing archaeological methodologies
- Part VI Society, economy and water today
- Part VII Conclusions
- Index
- Plate section
- References
Summary
ABSTRACT
The Dead Sea has played a crucial role in the past development of communities in the Jordan Valley, as evidenced by the wide range of archaeological sites close to the sea or potential old sea shorelines. There is also considerable debate concerning how levels have changed over the recent past and also how water resources in the Jordan Valley will be managed in the future. Over the past 50 years there has been a significant reduction in the level of the Dead Sea driven by abstractions from the Jordan River, the main source of fresh water to the sea. Falling levels have created problems for the tourism industry, and there are plans to restore levels using a water transfer from the Red Sea or the Mediterranean to the Dead Sea. A new model of the Dead Sea levels is described, based on historical rainfall and level data from 1860 to 1960. The model is used to simulate the impacts of abstractions on Dead Sea levels that have resulted in a 45-m reduction in levels since the 1960s. The model is also used to evaluate the impacts of future climate change: it is shown that the projected changes in rainfall have a far smaller impact on Dead Sea levels than do the abstractions. The model also shows that the only way to avoid this problem is to transfer water into the Dead Sea from either the Red Sea or the Mediterranean. […]
Information
- Type
- Chapter
- Information
- Water, Life and CivilisationClimate, Environment and Society in the Jordan Valley, pp. 147 - 156Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2011
References
, , et al. (2006) Evolution of the Dead Sea sinkholes. In New Frontiers in Dead Sea Paleoenvironmental Research, ed. , and . Boulder, CO: Geological Society of America.Google Scholar
(2000) The water balance of the Dead Sea: an integrated approach. Hydrological Processes 14: 145–154.3.0.CO;2-N>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
(2009) The impact of climate change on daily precipitation statistics for Jordan and Israel. Atmospheric Science Letters 10: 192–200.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
and (1984) Evaporation from saline lakes: a combination equation approach. Hydrological Sciences Journal 29: 89–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , et al. (2003) Late Holocene climates of the Near East deduced from Dead Sea level variations and modern regional winter rainfall. Quaternary Research 60: 263–273.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , et al. (2009) Implementation of ecological modeling as an effective management and investigation tool: Lake Kinneret as a case study. Ecological Modelling 220: 1697–1718.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
and (2006) On the origin and fate of the brines in the Dead Sea basin. In New Frontiers in Dead Sea Paleoenvironmental Research, ed. , and , CO: Geological Society of America pp. 183–195.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , and (2006) The hydrology and paleohydrology of the Dead Sea tributaries. In New Frontiers in Dead Sea Paleoenvironmental Research, ed. , and , CO: Geological Society of America pp. 63–95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
(2006) Water Resources in Jordan. Evolving Policies for Development, the Environment, and Conflict Resolution. Washington: RFF Press.Google Scholar
(1996) Digital topography and bathymetry of the area of the Dead Sea depression. Tectonophysics 266: 177–185.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, and (2007) Summary for Policymakers. In Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva: IPCC.Google Scholar
(1961) On the fluctuations of the Dead Sea since the beginning of the 19th century. Israel Hydrological Service Report number 7.
(1998) Water balance of the Upper Jordan River basin. Water International 23: 244–248.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
(2006) A Future for the Dead Sea Basin: Water Culture among Israelis, Palestinians and Jordanians. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) Working Paper pp. 22.CrossRef
, , et al., eds. (2001) IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Geneva: GRID-Arendal.
, , and (2006) A review of palaeoclimates in the Levant and Eastern Mediterranean from 25,000 to 5000 BP: setting the environmental background for the evolution of human civilisation. Quaternary Science Reviews 25: 1517–1541.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
(1955) One hundred years of rainfall in Jerusalem. Israel Exploration Journal 5: 137–153.Google Scholar
and (2006) Mesozoic climates: general circulation models and the rock record. Sedimentary Geology 190: 269–287.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , and (1999) Understanding Past Climates: Modelling Ancient Weather. Taylor & Francis Ltd (CD-ROM).Google Scholar
(2005) Modelling hydrological processes in arid and semi-arid areas. In Proceedings of the International G-WADI Modelling Workshopshttp://www.gwadi.org.
, and (1998) A semi-distributed Integrated Nitrogen model for multiple source assessment in Catchments (INCA): Part I – model structure and process equations. Science of the Total Environment 210: 547–558.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , and (2006) Impacts of climate change on in-stream nitrogen in a lowland chalk stream: an appraisal of adaptation strategies. Science of the Total Environment 365: 260–273.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
, , et al. (2008) Modelling of hydrology and potential population levels at Bronze Age Jawa, Northern Jordan: a Monte Carlo approach to cope with uncertainty. Journal of Archaeological Science 35: 517–529.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Accessibility standard: Unknown
Why this information is here
This section outlines the accessibility features of this content - including support for screen readers, full keyboard navigation and high-contrast display options. This may not be relevant for you.Accessibility Information
Accessibility compliance for the PDF of this chapter is currently unknown
and may be updated in the future.