Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of figures
- List of tables
- List of contributors
- Acknowledgements
- 1 Introduction: an interdisciplinary approach to Water, Life and Civilisation
- Part I Past, present and future climate
- Part II The palaeoenvironmental record
- Part III Hydrological studies of the Jordan Valley
- Part IV Human settlement, climate change, hydrology and water management
- 14 The archaeology of water management in the Jordan Valley from the Epipalaeolithic to the Nabataean, 21,000 BP (19,000 BC) to AD 106
- 15 From global climate change to local impact in Wadi Faynan, southern Jordan: ten millennia of human settlement in its hydrological context
- 16 Palaeoenvironmental reconstruction at Beidha, southern Jordan (c. 18,000–8,500 BP): Implications for human occupation during the Natufian and Pre-Pottery Neolithic
- 17 The influence of water on Chalcolithic and Early Bronze Age settlement patterns in the southern Levant
- 18 Modelling water resources and climate change at the Bronze Age site of Jawa in northern Jordan: a new approach utilising stochastic simulation techniques
- 19 A millennium of rainfall, settlement and water management at Humayma, southern Jordan, c. 2,050–1,150 BP (100 BC to AD 800)
- Part V Palaeoeconomies and developing archaeological methodologies
- Part VI Society, economy and water today
- Part VII Conclusions
- Index
- Plate section
- References
18 - Modelling water resources and climate change at the Bronze Age site of Jawa in northern Jordan: a new approach utilising stochastic simulation techniques
from Part IV - Human settlement, climate change, hydrology and water management
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 26 April 2011
Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of figures
- List of tables
- List of contributors
- Acknowledgements
- 1 Introduction: an interdisciplinary approach to Water, Life and Civilisation
- Part I Past, present and future climate
- Part II The palaeoenvironmental record
- Part III Hydrological studies of the Jordan Valley
- Part IV Human settlement, climate change, hydrology and water management
- 14 The archaeology of water management in the Jordan Valley from the Epipalaeolithic to the Nabataean, 21,000 BP (19,000 BC) to AD 106
- 15 From global climate change to local impact in Wadi Faynan, southern Jordan: ten millennia of human settlement in its hydrological context
- 16 Palaeoenvironmental reconstruction at Beidha, southern Jordan (c. 18,000–8,500 BP): Implications for human occupation during the Natufian and Pre-Pottery Neolithic
- 17 The influence of water on Chalcolithic and Early Bronze Age settlement patterns in the southern Levant
- 18 Modelling water resources and climate change at the Bronze Age site of Jawa in northern Jordan: a new approach utilising stochastic simulation techniques
- 19 A millennium of rainfall, settlement and water management at Humayma, southern Jordan, c. 2,050–1,150 BP (100 BC to AD 800)
- Part V Palaeoeconomies and developing archaeological methodologies
- Part VI Society, economy and water today
- Part VII Conclusions
- Index
- Plate section
- References
Summary
ABSTRACT
Water in arid zones is at a premium, and this applied to past populations living on scarce water resources as it does today. An annual water balance model for Wadi Rajil, in northern Jordan, is used to simulate the ancient water supply system for the Early Bronze Age site of Jawa. The model includes water delivery from the catchment, local pond storage, and water demand for people, animals and irrigation. A Monte Carlo approach is used to incorporate the uncertainty associated with a range of factors including rainfall, evaporation, water losses and use. The stochastic simulation provides estimates of population levels sustainable by the water supply system. Past rainfall estimates from a global circulation model (GCM), with uncertainty bounds, are used to reconstruct the climate at Jawa in the Early Bronze Age (EBA). Model results indicate that the population levels in the predicted wetter conditions in the EBA could have risen to ~6,000 and may have been higher in wet years. Pond storage sustained the population during drought years. The GCM results suggest that prolonged droughts occurred in the later Bronze Age during which the water management system was unable to provide adequate supply for a population of 6,000. The utility of Monte Carlo based hydrological modelling as a tool within archaeological science is discussed.
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- Water, Life and CivilisationClimate, Environment and Society in the Jordan Valley, pp. 289 - 301Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2011
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