This paper utilizes neural networks (NNs) for cycle detection in the insurance industry. The efficacy of NNs is compared on simulated data to the standard methods used in the underwriting cycles literature. The results show that NN models perform well in detecting cycles even in the presence of outliers and structural breaks. The methodology is applied to a granular data set of prices per risk profile from the Brazilian insurance industry.

Healthcare costs tend to increase with age. In particular, in the case of illness, the last year before death can be an exceptionally costly period as the need for healthcare increases. Using a novel private insurance dataset containing over one million records of claims submitted by individuals to their health insurance providers during the last year of life, our research seeks to shed light on the costs before death in Switzerland. Our work documents how spending patterns change with proximity to dying. We use machine learning algorithms to identify and quantify the key effects that drive a person’s spending during this critical period. Our findings provide a more profound understanding of the costs associated with hospitalization before death, the role of age, and the variation in costs based on the services, including care services, which individuals require.

We investigate bottom-up risk aggregation applied by insurance companies facing reserve risk from multiple lines of business. Since risk capitals should be calculated in different time horizons and calendar years, depending on the regulatory or reporting regime (Solvency II vs IFRS 17), we study correlations of ultimate losses and correlations of one-year losses in future calendar years in lines of business. We consider a multivariate version of a Hertig’s lognormal model and we derive analytical formulas for the ultimate correlation and the one-year correlations in future calendar years. Our main conclusion is that the correlation coefficients that should be used in a bottom-up aggregation formula depend on the time horizon and the future calendar year where the risk emerges. We investigate analytically and numerically properties of the ultimate and the one-year correlations, their possible values observed in practice, and the impact of misspecified correlations on the diversified risk capital.

Ponzi schemes are financial frauds that are pervasive throughout the world. Since they cause serious harm to society, it is of interest to study them so that they can be prevented. Typically, a Ponzi scheme is instigated by a promoter who promises above-average investment returns. He uses funds from the early investors to pay his later investors. These scams can occasionally last a long time, but they are ultimately unsustainable. This paper describes some well-known Ponzi schemes and identifies their common characteristics. We also review some of the approaches used to model Ponzi schemes.

A common narrative among insurance actuaries and business economists is that national or regional pension systems can be finetuned, optimized, and improved simply by tinkering with demographic and financial parameters; all within the context of the “right” mathematical model. Indeed, recent papers in the actuarial literature have offered technical fixes around savings rates, retirement ages, decumulation strategies as well as more refined mortality and interest rate models. But alas, not everything in the world of pensions and retirement can be optimized, in particular as it relates to the history, background culture, or religion of the underlying population.

This paper documents a statistically significant relationship between a region’s pension plan “health status” and the fraction of the region’s population identifying as Protestant Christians (PC). We begin the analysis at the national level using a well-known pension quality index and then obtain similar results for the actuarial funded status of U.S. state pension plans.

Overall, this work is within the sphere of recent literature that indicates historical religious beliefs, values, and culture matter for financial economic outcomes; a factor which obviously can’t be optimized within a mathematical Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation. In other words, some things in retirement are truly beyond control.