The Little Bustard Tetrax tetrax is a Near Threatened grassland bird that is fully migratory within its eastern population, wintering in large numbers across the south Caucasus and northern parts of Iran. The species’ habitat selection has been comprehensively studied in its western European range, but very limited information is available for its eastern population. Surveys carried out between 2010 and 2015 show a considerable population increase and probable range expansion in the region. We modelled the suitability of potential winter habitat for the species and found that distance to country border, land cover and altitude were the most important variables in predicting habitat suitability. There is still considerable hunting pressure in Iran and distance to border is likely to be related to strict hunting prohibition along the border belt imposed for military purposes. This represents an opportunity for the conservation of the species, where management efforts should aim at ensuring the maintenance of suitable land cover.

With a decline exceeding 30% over three generations, the once-common European Turtle-dove is now considered globally threatened by IUCN. As a legal game species in 10 European countries, the recent International Single Species Action Plan for this species highlighted the need to carry out an assessment of the sustainability of current levels of hunting. In 2013–2014, the Western European population was estimated at 1.3–2.1 million pairs, and the hunting bag in the same region to be 1.1 million birds. Using the Demographic Invariant Method, we assessed whether current levels of hunting harvest within Europe constitute overexploitation of the western flyway European Turtle-dove population. We calculated the maximum growth rate λmax that a population might achieve in the absence of any additive mortality. Then we estimated the potential maximum harvestable population fraction (P) allowed by excess population growth. We explored a wide range of plausible scenarios relating to assumed demographic rates, geographic scope of the flyway and management objectives. λmax was estimated to lie between 1.551 and 1.869. Current levels of hunting along the western flyway are more than double the sustainable fraction (P) under all suitably conservative scenarios, and only fall below this threshold under the most restrictive assumptions. We conclude that current levels of legal hunting along the western flyway are unlikely to be sustainable. Reducing uncertainty associated with assessments of the sustainability of turtle dove hunting will require improved information on (in order of decreasing importance) current levels of hunting, adult survival, age structure and population size.