Up to October 2004, dogs and cats imported into Japan were subjected to a quarantine regimen which consisted of vaccination and a 30- to 365-day waiting period in the country of origin and a 14-day quarantine period upon arrival in Japan. This regimen was replaced by a new one, consisting of vaccination, antibody level titration and a 180-day waiting period in the country of origin, in November 2004. To evaluate the effect of this policy change, a quantitative risk assessment was undertaken. The risk of rabies entering Japan through the importation of dogs and cats from the USA under the old – and new – regimens was quantitatively assessed and compared. Under the new regimen, rabies will enter Japan once every 4932 years (90% confidence interval 1812–13 412 years) through the importation of dogs and cats from the USA. Under the old regimen, rabies would enter Japan once every 70 years (39–205 years), 83 years (45–267 years) or 190 years (104–609 years) assuming that the animal departs the country of origin 30 days, 180 days or 365 days after vaccination, respectively. This indicates the policy change would reduce the risk by a factor of 1/25–1/70.

The aim of this study was to assess the effects of reductions in the number of isolates tested by phage-typing on the recognition of outbreaks of salmonellosis. Five outbreaks (categorized as ‘small’, ‘medium’ or ‘large’) which occurred in England in 2005 were used as examples. The outbreaks were caused by serotypes which were subdivided by phage-typing. Results indicated that reducing the number of isolates phage-typed would have an impact on the surveillance system, with one outbreak likely to have been missed altogether. However, this does not have a great effect on the ‘time-to-detection’ for the other outbreaks. Assuming no testing for phage-typing was undertaken it is likely that two out of five outbreaks would not have been detected. Assessing the value of phage-type information is important not only in deciding on the efficiency of the current surveillance system but also in providing a basis upon which to assess more detailed typing methodologies such as an antibiogram of molecular profile.

Earlier studies on the ecology of leptospirosis in temperate regions focused mainly on free-ranging rats in rural areas. Here we report on the occurrence of Leptospira spp. in Rattus norvegicus living in sewers in a suburban area in Copenhagen, Denmark. In 2006–2007, about 30 rats were captured in sewers at each of six different locations. Rat kidneys were screened by PCR for pathogenic Leptospira spp. In one location no infected rats were found, whereas the prevalence in the remaining five locations ranged between 48% and 89%. Micro-agglutination tests showed that serogroup Pomona, Sejroe, and Icterohaemorrhagiae were the most common. Infection was related to age with the highest prevalence observed for adult rats but there was no difference in infection rate between sexes, suggesting primarily environmental transmission. Since most reported rat problems in urban areas are related to sewer rats, the surprisingly high level of infection calls for an increased public health concern.

A Q fever outbreak occurred in the southeast of The Netherlands in spring and summer 2007. Risk factors for the acquisition of a recent Coxiella burnetii infection were studied. In total, 696 inhabitants in the cluster area were invited to complete a questionnaire and provide a blood sample for serological testing of IgG and IgM phases I and II antibodies against C. burnetii, in order to recruit seronegative controls for a case-control study. Questionnaires were also sent to 35 previously identified clinical cases. Limited environmental sampling focused on two goat farms in the area. Living in the east of the cluster area, in which a positive goat farm, cattle and small ruminants were situated, smoking and contact with agricultural products were associated with a recent infection. Information leaflets were distributed on a large scale to ruminant farms, including hygiene measures to reduce the risk of spread between animals and to humans.

On 24 August 2008, an outbreak alert regarding cases of acute gastroenteritis in Podgorica triggered investigations to guide control measures. From 23 August to 7 September, 1699 cases were reported in Podgorica (population 136 000) and we estimated the total size of the outbreak to be 10 000–15 000 corresponding to an attack rate of ~10%. We conducted an age- and neighbourhood-matched case-control study, microbiologically analysed faecal and municipal water samples and assessed the water distribution system. All cases (83/83) and 90% (89/90) of controls drank unboiled chlorinated municipal water [matched odds ratio (mOR) 11·2, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1·6–∞]. Consumption of bottled water was inversely associated with illness (mOR 0·3, 95% CI 0·1–0·8). Analyses of faecal samples identified six norovirus genotypes (21/38 samples) and occasionally other viruses. Multiple defects in the water distribution system were noted. These results suggest that the outbreak was caused by faecally contaminated municipal water. It is unusual to have such a large outbreak in a European city especially when the municipal water supply is chlorinated. Therefore, it is important to establish effective multiple-barrier water-treatment systems whenever possible, but even with an established chlorinated supply, sustained vigilance is central to public health.

This study describes the epidemiology of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in elderly Australians for the first time. Using a case-cohort design, cases with CAP were in-patients aged ⩾65 years with ICD-10-AM codes J10-J18 admitted over 2 years to two tertiary hospitals. The cohort sample was randomly selected from all hospital discharges, frequency-matched to cases by month. Logistic regression was used to estimate risk ratios for factors predicting CAP or associated mortality. A total of 4772 in-patients were studied. There were 1952 cases with CAP that represented 4% of all elderly admissions: mean length of stay was 9·0 days and 30-day mortality was 18%. Excluding chest radiograph, 520/1864 (28%) cases had no investigations performed. The strongest predictors of CAP were previous pneumonia, history of other respiratory disease, and aspiration. Intensive-care-unit admission, renal disease and increasing age were the strongest predictors of mortality, while influenza vaccination conferred protection. Hospitalization with CAP in the elderly is common, frequently fatal and a considerable burden to the Australian community. Investigation is ad hoc and management empirical. Influenza vaccination is associated with reduced mortality. Patient characteristics can predict risk of CAP and subsequent mortality.

Matching individuals reported to a sentinel surveillance scheme for hepatitis C between 2000 and 2005 to individuals with a hospital episode for hepatitis C-related liver disease in the same hospitals, we estimated that the number of cases of hepatitis C-related end-stage liver disease in these English hospitals was 42% (597/419) higher than Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) would indicate. Further, matching records of hepatitis C-related deaths in HES to death certificates, we estimated that, between 2000 and 2005, the true number of deaths from hepatitis C-related end-stage liver disease was between 185% (353/124) and 257% (378/106) higher than the number recorded in routine mortality statistics. We provide estimates of under-recording that can be used to modify existing models of disease burden due to hepatitis C and provide a simple approach to improve the monitoring of trends in severe hepatitis C-related morbidity over time.

The mechanisms that cause susceptibility to invasive meningococcal disease are largely unknown, but are likely to have important genetic and immunological components. We postulated that susceptibility to meningococcal disease might be associated with altered risks of development of other clinical disease. We studied cancer and immune-mediated disease in people who have been hospitalized with meningococcal disease. In cohorts of people who had invasive meningococcal disease, compared with reference cohorts, the rate ratio for cancer in an Oxford dataset studied from 1963 to 1998 was 0·88 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0·42–1·61] and in an all-England dataset studied from 1999 to 2005 it was 1·02 (95% CI 0·80–1·27). The respective rate ratios for immune-mediated disease were 1·49 (95% CI 0·81–2·50) and 0·69 (95% CI 0·53–0·89). Susceptibility to meningococcal disease was not associated with an altered risk of cancer. Occurrence of immune-mediated disease was, if anything, low in the large all-England cohort of people who had meningococcal disease.

Lagos bat virus (LBV) constitutes genotype (gt) 2 in the Lyssavirus genus. In contrast to the gt1 lyssavirus, rabies virus (RABV), LBV was reported to have markedly reduced levels of peripheral pathogenicity. However, this opinion was based on a study of one isolate of LBV only and the reduction in pathogenicity was essentially attributed to the amino-acid substitution at position 333 of glycoprotein ectodomain. In the present study we have demonstrated that peripheral pathogenicity of representatives of LBV in a murine model is as high as that of RABV. Comparison of amino-acid substitutions among the viral glycoproteins, demonstrated significant differences within two antigenic sites between different phylogenetic lineages of LBV. Such molecular variability potentially contributes to differences in peripheral pathogenicity of lyssaviruses.

In 2004, concurrent measles and rubella outbreaks occurred in four camps hosting 2767 Liberian refugees in Côte d'Ivoire. Sixty rash and fever cases were identified. From 19 January to 23 February 2004 (weeks 8–13), measles IgM testing showed that 61·1% were positive. The highest incidence rate (18·5%) of measles was observed in children aged <9 months. Ninety-three percent of children aged between 6 months and 15 years received a measles vaccine during week 13, but the rash and fever cases continued to occur. This prompted a systematic test for both measles and rubella IgM antibodies. Rubella IgM testing revealed 74·0% positive cases between 14 February and 25 April (weeks 11–21). The highest incidence rate (3·88%) of rubella was found in children aged between 5 and 15 years. Supplemental immunization with a measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine was conducted during week 20. This study illustrates the importance of testing for both measles and rubella in outbreaks of rash and fever in refugee settings.

Surveillance reports and prevalence studies have indicated that injecting drug users (IDUs) contribute more to the hepatitis C epidemic in the United Kingdom than any other risk group. Information on both the prevalence and incidence of hepatitis C in IDUs is therefore essential to understanding the epidemiology of this infection. The prevalence of hepatitis C in specimens from the Unlinked Anonymous Prevalence Monitoring Programme collected in 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, and 2001 was determined using residual syphilis serology specimens from IDUs attending 15 genitourinary medicine (GUM) clinics in and outside London. These specimens were tested for antibodies to hepatitis C virus (anti-HCV). Using this cross-sectional design, anti-HCV-negative specimens were tested for HCV RNA to identify incident infections during the ‘window’ period of infection, and thus to estimate HCV incidence. Results of the multivariable analysis showed that there was marked variation in prevalence by clinic (P<0·0001) and age (P<0·0001). Overall the majority of infections were in males and the overall prevalence in injectors declined over the study period from 36·9% to 28·7%. The annual incidence in these injectors was estimated as being 3·01% (95% CI 1·25–6·73). Over the study period HCV incidence decreased by 1·2% per year. Genotyping of the incident infections identified the most common genotype as type 1 with type 3 being more frequently seen after 1998. Of the prevalent infections, genotype 1 was the most common. The study has confirmed a higher prevalence of anti-HCV in IDUs in the London area compared to those outside London. How representative of the current injecting drug user population are IDUs attending GUM clinics is unclear. Even so, such studies allow prevalence and incidence to be estimated in individuals who have ever injected drugs and inform ongoing public health surveillance.

Varicella is a very common childhood disease responsible for an important number of hospitalizations every year in Spain. The aim of this study was to assess the burden of chickenpox hospitalizations in Spain in the 7-year period between 1999 and 2005. Data of hospital discharges relating to varicella were obtained from the Conjunto Mínimo Básico de Datos (CMBD), the Spanish surveillance system for hospital data. All paediatric hospitalizations for primary varicella that occurred between 1 January 1999 and 31 December 2005 were selected. The hospitalization rate for the 7-year study period was 23·06 hospitalizations/100 000 population. The highest incidences of hospitalizations were observed in the youngest groups (60·79 and 55·65/100 000 population for ages 0–12 months and 1–2 years respectively). Nineteen deaths were reported during the study period. The median length of stay in hospital was 4 days (interquartile range 3–7 days). Despite the availability of effective varicella vaccines, chickenpox remains an important cause of hospitalizations in Spain.

Brucellosis is an important zoonosis in Middle Eastern countries. In this study we assessed the extent of the application of planned official brucellosis control programmes in Kafr El Sheikh governorate, Egypt and we used a stochastic simulation model to assess the probable impact of changes to the official control strategy on the dynamics of small-ruminant brucellosis. Our results show that <7% of female livestock were tested in any given year in the study area and that quarantine was not consistently applied to infected herds. Simulation results revealed the inability of the applied control measures to reduce the prevalence of small-ruminant brucellosis. Given our assumptions, the intensity with which infected animals are removed under the actual levels of implementation of test-and-slaughter programmes would permit brucellosis to remain endemic at a level >8% of the sheep and goat population.

A public plan for eradicating Salmonella in Danish table-egg production was implemented in 1996. During 2002, the poultry industry took over the responsibility of the programme. The proportion of infected layer flocks was reduced from 13·4% in 1998 to 0·4% in 2006. The public-health impact of the plan has been quite marked. In 1997, 55–65% of the 5015 cases of human salmonellosis were estimated to be associated with eggs. In 2006, these figures were reduced to 1658 and 5–7%, respectively. Based on an assessment of the number of human cases attributable to table eggs, we used probabilistic modelling to estimate the avoided societal costs (health care and lost labour), and compared these with the public costs of control. The probable avoided societal costs during 1998–2002 were estimated to be 23·3 million euros (95% CI 16·3–34·9), and the results showed a continuous decreasing cost–benefit ratio reaching well below 1 in 2002. Further reductions in the primary production based on effective surveillance and control are required to ensure continued success.

A national outbreak of verotoxin-producing Escherichia coli O157 infection affected five English regions and Wales. Twelve cases were associated with lemon-and-coriander chicken wrap from a single supermarket chain consumed over a 5-day period. An outbreak investigation aimed to identify the source of infection. Descriptive epidemiology and phenotypic and genotypic tests on human isolates indicated a point-source outbreak; a case-control study showed a very strong association between consumption of lemon-and-coriander chicken wrap from the single supermarket chain and being a case (OR 46·40, 95% CI 5·39–∞, P=0·0002). Testing of raw ingredients, products and faecal samples from staff in the food production unit did not yield any positive results. The outbreak was probably caused by one contaminated batch of an ingredient in the chicken wrap. Even when current best practice is in place, ready-to-eat foods can still be a risk for widespread infection.

Recent studies have provided evidence that endemic pathogens may affect dynamics in animals. However, such studies have not typically considered that infected individuals might have a preceding underlying poor condition. We examined whether individuals in poor condition are more likely to become infected by an endemic pathogen, using as a system the dynamics of cowpox virus in field voles. With data from monthly sampled vole populations, a nested case-control study evaluated whether susceptible individuals with poorer condition had higher probabilities of contracting cowpox. The influence of condition was found to be considerable, especially for males. At times when a susceptible male with good body condition had a relatively low probability of becoming infected, a susceptible male with poor body condition was twice as likely to contract cowpox; if this male was also anaemic, the chances were almost quadrupled. We discuss the care needed when interpreting the findings of wildlife disease studies.

Austrian veterinary (n=91), dairy (n=86), and human strains (n=48) of Staphylococcus aureus were tested for various phenotypic properties including clumping factor, egg-yolk reaction, production of thermonuclease and susceptibility to 14 antibiotics. In addition the expression of enterotoxins (A–E), and the presence of enterotoxin genes sea to sej and tst was determined. Significant differences in antimicrobial susceptibility were found with 84·6% of veterinary, 57·0% of dairy, and 20·8% of human strains susceptible to all antibiotics tested (P<0·0005). More human strains produced enterotoxins (41·7%) than veterinary (9·9%) and dairy strains (12·6%) while 40·7% and 38·5% of veterinary, 47·7% and 52·3% of dairy, and 77·1% and 87·5% of human strains were se- and tst-positive, respectively. AFLP analysis revealed nine clusters with over- or under-representation of strains with specific characteristics. Strains clustered according to origin (veterinary, dairy, and human) and/or presence of toxin genes and antimicrobial resistance.

An outbreak of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) skin and soft tissue infections (SSTIs) occurred in a college football team in August 2006. Of 109 players on the team roster, 88 (81%) were interviewed during a cohort investigation. Twenty-five cases were identified, six of which were culture-confirmed. Available culture isolates were typed by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE), which identified two different MRSA strains associated with the outbreak. Playing positions with the most physical contact (offensive linemen, defensive linemen, and tight ends) had the greatest risk of infection [risk ratio (RR) 5·1, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2·3–11·5. Other risk factors included recent skin trauma (RR 1·9, 95% CI 0·95–3·7), use of therapeutic hydrocollator packs (RR 2·5, 95% CI 1·1–5·7), and miscellaneous training equipment use (RR 2·1, 95% CI 1·1–4·1). The outbreak was successfully controlled through team education and implementation of improved infection-control practices and hygiene policies.

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a known risk factor for pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB). This study aimed to determine if type 2 DM alters manifestations and treatment outcome of PTB. Records of 217 consecutive culture-proven PTB patients were analysed retrospectively. The manifestations and treatment outcomes of 74 patients with type 2 DM (PTB-DM group) were compared to 143 patients without DM (PTB group). PTB-DM patients showed higher frequencies of fever, haemoptysis, positive acid-fast bacilli sputum smears, and consolidation, cavity, and lower lung field lesions on chest radiographs, and higher mortality rate. Furthermore, type 2 DM, age ⩾65 years, and extensive radiographic disease were factors independently associated with an unfavorable outcome. This study confirmed that clinical manifestations and chest radiographs of PTB patients associated with type 2 DM significantly depart from the typical presentation. Type 2 DM seems to have a negative effect on treatment outcome of PTB.