Understanding patterns of influenza spread and persistence is crucial for pandemic preparedness. The H1N1pdm09 virus caused the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century which resulted in at least 18500 deaths. Based on laboratory-confirmed primary-care case reports we investigated the role of weather conditions and socio-demographic variables in its initial spread and subsequent presence in France. Our findings suggest that low relative humidity and high population density were determinants in shaping the early spread of the virus at the national level. Those conditions also favoured the persistence of viral presence throughout the first 33 weeks of the pandemic. Additionally this persistence was significantly favoured by low insolation. These results confirm the increasingly recognized role of humidity in influenza dynamics and underlie the concomitant effect of insolation. Therefore climatic factors should be taken into account when designing influenza control and prevention measures.

Non-tuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) illness is an emerging life-threatening infection, and paediatric features have not been well studied. The objective of our study was to review the NTM isolates of hospitalized paediatric patients identified at our institution and to describe the characteristics of these cases. Our retrospective chart review from 2010 to 2013 identified 45 patients with 46 positive NTM cultures. Fifteen (33%) patients had received haematopoietic cell transplant, 13 (29%) had cystic fibrosis, and six (13%) were previously healthy. Twenty-seven (59%) NTM isolates were Mycobacterium chelonae/abscessus, 14 (30%) were M. avium intracellulare, and four (9%) were M. immunogenum. The majority (65%) of cases were community-acquired, and 20 (43%) patients were treated as infection. This case series identified a predominance of M. chelonae/abscessus, and includes a substantial number of haematopoietic cell transplant patients, which reflects the changing spectrum of NTM disease as molecular diagnostics improve and quaternary care facilities provide for a larger immunocompromised population.

Effective use of data linkage is becoming an increasingly important focus in the new healthcare system in England. We linked data from the results of a multiplex PCR assay for respiratory viruses for a population of 230 inpatients at a UK teaching hospital with their patient administrative system records in order to compare the mortality and length of stay of patients who tested positive for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 with those positive for another influenza A virus. The results indicated a reduced risk of death among influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 patients compared to other influenza A strains, with an adjusted risk ratio of 0·25 (95% confidence interval 0·08–0·75, P = 0·01), while no significant differences were found between the lengths of stay in the hospital for these two groups. Further development of such methods to link hospital data in a routine fashion could provide a rapid means of gaining epidemiological insights into emerging infectious diseases.

To assess the impact of past dengue epidemics in Singapore, we undertook a national seroepidemiological study to determine the prevalence of past dengue virus (DENV) infection in the adult population in 2010 and make comparisons with the seroprevalence in 2004. The study involved residual sera from 3293 adults aged 18–79 years who participated in a national health survey in 2010. The overall prevalence of anti-DENV IgG antibodies was 56·8% (95% confidence interval 55·1–58·5) in 2010. The seroprevalence increased significantly with age. Males had significantly higher seroprevalence than females (61·5% vs. 53·2%). Among the three major ethnic groups, Malays had the lowest seroprevalence (50·2%) compared to Chinese (57·0%) and Indians (62·0%). The age-standardized seroprevalence in adults was significantly lower in 2010 (54·4%) compared to 2004 (63·1%). Older age, male gender, Indian ethnicity, permanent residency and being home-bound were independent risk factors significantly associated with seropositivity. About 43% of the Singapore adult resident population remain susceptible to DENV infection as a result of the successful implementation of a comprehensive nationwide Aedes surveillance and control programme since the 1970s. Vector suppression and concerted efforts of all stakeholders in the community remain the key strategy in the prevention and control of dengue.

A novel influenza virus emerged in the United States in spring 2009, rapidly becoming a global pandemic. Children were disproportionally affected by the novel influenza A(H1N1) pandemic virus [A(H1N1)pdm]. This retrospective electronic medical record review study aimed to identify clinical predictors of disease severity of influenza A(HIN1)pdm infection in paediatric patients. Disease severity was defined on an increasing three-level scale from non-hospitalized, hospitalized, and admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). From April 2009 to June 2010, 696 children presented to Texas Children's Hospital's emergency department, 38% were hospitalized, and 17% were admitted to the ICU. Presenting symptoms associated with severe influenza were dyspnoea [odds ratio (OR) 5·82], tachycardia (OR 2·61) and fatigue (OR 1·96). Pre-existing health conditions associated with disease severity included seizure disorder (OR 4·71), obesity (OR 3·28), lung disease (OR 2·84), premature birth (OR 2·53), haematological disease (OR 2·22), and developmental delay (OR 2·20). According to model fitness tests, presenting symptoms were more likely to predict severe influenza than underlying medical conditions. However, both are important risk factors. Recognition of clinical characteristics associated with severe disease can be used for triaging case management of children during future influenza outbreaks.

We conducted a case-control study based on 884 laboratory-confirmed sporadic Salmonella cases reported to the German infectious disease notification system. For controls, we recruited 510 rotavirus cases via the same system. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed separately for children aged 0–3 years and 4–14 years. In both age groups, the highest odds ratios (OR) were found for raw ground pork consumption [0–3 years: OR 8·6, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2·4–30·8; 4–14 years: OR 4·5, 95% CI 1·1–19]. Further risk factors were exposure to animals (OR 1·6, 95% CI 1·1–2·1), consumption of poultry (OR 1·5, 95% CI 1·1–2·1), food items containing eggs (OR 1·5, 95% CI 1·1–2) and black pepper (OR 1·7, 95% CI 1·1–3·5) in children aged 0–3 years, and consumption of uncooked pork sausage (OR 3·6, 95% CI 1·4–9·3) in children aged 4–14 years. This study highlights the significance of raw pork products (‘Mett’ in German) as risk factors for sporadic salmonellosis in children in Germany.

Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) infections have been associated with severe illness. Ruminants are seen as the main reservoir and the major transmission route is considered to be foodborne. In The Netherlands, a case-control study was conducted, using data collected during 2008–2012. Patients were interviewed and controls completed a self-administered questionnaire. Patients travelling abroad were excluded from the analyses. STEC O157 and non-O157 were examined separately and differentiated into two age groups (<10 years, ⩾10 years). We included 130 O157 cases, 78 non-O157 cases and 1563 controls. In both age groups of O157 patients, raw spreadable sausage was the main risk factor for infection. For STEC non-O157 cases aged <10 years, contact with farm animals was the main risk factor and in non-O157 cases aged ⩾10 years, consumption of beef was the main risk factor. During 2008–2012, risk factors for STEC infections in the Dutch population differed between age groups and serogroup categories, and were related to eating meat and contact with farm animals. Advising the public about the risks of consuming raw or undercooked meat (products) and hygiene habits in case of contact with farm animals, could help in the prevention of STEC infections.

We quantified the transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus in mixed cattle-sheep populations and the effect of different vaccination strategies. The (partial) reproduction ratios (R) in groups of non-vaccinated and vaccinated cattle and/or sheep were estimated from (published) transmission experiments. A 4 × 4 next-generation matrix (NGM) was constructed using these estimates. The dominant eigenvalue of the NGM, the R for a mixed population, was determined for populations with different proportions of cattle and sheep and for three different vaccination strategies. The higher the proportion of cattle in a mixed cattle-sheep population, the higher the R for the mixed population. Therefore the impact of vaccination of the cattle is higher. After vaccination of all animals R = 0·1 independent of population composition. In mixed cattle-sheep populations with at least 14% of cattle, vaccination of cattle only is sufficient to reduce R to < 1.

Tuberculosis (TB) in elephants has the potential to infect humans and is an increasing public health concern. Lao PDR is one of the last countries where elephants are still used for timber extraction and where they live in close contact with their mahouts. There are 500 animals at work in the country, some interacting with wild herds. Although human TB prevalence is known to be high in Laos, studies on elephant TB had yet to be undertaken. From January to July 2012, screening was performed using the ElephantTB Stat-Pak assay on 80 elephants working around the Nam Pouy National Park in Sayaboury Province. This represents more than 18% of the total registered national working elephant population. Here we report that 36% of the elephants were seroreactive to the test. Of these, 31% had contacts with wild individuals, which suggests potential transmission of mycobacteria to the local wild herds. Clinical examination, chest X-rays, sputum microscopy and culture were performed on their 142 mahouts or owners. Despite high TB seroreactivity in elephants, no participant was smear- or culture-positive for Mycobacterium tuberculosis or M. bovis, although atypical mycobacteria were isolated from 4% of participants.

The epidemiology of seasonal influenza is influenced by age. During the influenza season, the European Influenza Surveillance Network (EISN) reports weekly virological and syndromic surveillance data [mostly influenza-like illness (ILI)] based on national networks of sentinel primary-care providers. Aggregated numbers by age group are available for ILI, but not linked to the virological data. At the end of the influenza season 2012/2013, all EISN laboratories were invited to submit a subset of their virological data for this season, including information on age. The analysis by age group suggests that the overall distribution of circulating (sub)types may mask substantial differences between age groups. Thus, in cases aged 5–14 years, 75% tested positive for influenza B virus whereas all other age groups had an even distribution of influenza A and B viruses. This means that the intepretation of syndromic surveillance data without age group-specific virological data may be misleading. Surveillance at the European level would benefit from the reporting of age-specific influenza data.

Respiratory virus infections cause a significant number of hospitalization and deaths globally. This study investigated the association between single and multiple respiratory virus infections and risk of admission to a general ward, intensive care unit or death in patients aged 0–105 years (mean ± s.d. = 24·4 ± 24·1 years), from North West England, that were tested for respiratory virus infections between January 2007 and June 2012. The majority of infections were in children aged ⩽5 years. Dual or multiple infections occurred in 10·4% (1214/11 715) of patients, whereas single infection occurred in 89·6% (10 501/11 715). Rhinovirus was the most common co-infecting virus (occurring in 69·5%; 844/1214 of co-infections). In a multivariate logistic regression model, multiple infections were associated with an increased risk of admission to a general ward [odds ratio (OR) 1·43, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·2–1·7, P < 0·0001]. On the other hand, patients with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and human parainfluenza virus types 1–3 (hPIV1–3), as a single infection, had a higher risk of being admitted to a general ward (OR 1·49, 95% CI 1·28–1·73, P < 0·0001 and OR 1·34, 95% CI 1·003–1·8, P = 0·05, respectively); admitted to an intensive-care unit or dying (OR 1·5, 95% CI 1·20–2·0, P = 0·001 and OR 1·60, 95% CI 1·02–2·40, P = 0·04, respectively). This result emphasizes the importance of RSV, hPIV and mixed infections and calls for research on vaccines, drugs and diagnostic tests targeting these respiratory viruses.

Recognition of factors that influence the formation of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) foci is important for assessing the risk of humans acquiring the viral infection and for establishing what can be done (within reasonable boundaries) to minimize that risk. In Slovenia, the dynamics of the TBE vector, i.e. Ixodes ricinus, was studied over a 4-year period and the prevalence of infection in ticks was established. Two groups of tick hosts were investigated: deer and small mammals. Red deer have been confirmed as having a direct influence on the incidence of TBE and rodents have been recognized as important sentinels for TBE infections, although their role in the enzootic cycle of the virus still remains to be elucidated. Last, forest and agricultural areas, which are influenced by human activity, are suitable habitats for ticks, and important for TBEV transmission and establishment. Human behaviour is also therefore an important factor and should always be considered in studies of TBE ecology.

US cholera surveillance offers insight into global and domestic trends. Between 2001 and 2011, 111 cases were reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Cholera was associated with international travel in 90 (81%) patients and was domestically acquired in 20 (18%) patients; for one patient, information was not available. From January 2001 to October 2010, the 42 (47%) travel-associated cases were associated with travel to Asia. In October 2010, a cholera epidemic started in Haiti, soon spreading to the Dominican Republic (Hispaniola). From then to December 2011, 40 (83%) of the 48 travel-associated cases were associated with travel to Hispaniola. Of 20 patients who acquired cholera domestically, 17 (85%) reported seafood consumption; 10 (59%) ate seafood from the US Gulf Coast. In summary, an increase in travel-associated US cholera cases was associated with epidemic cholera in Hispaniola in 2010–2011. Travel to Asia and consumption of Gulf Coast seafood remained important sources of US cholera cases.

Indonesia has reported the most human infections with highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N1) virus worldwide. We implemented enhanced surveillance in four outpatient clinics and six hospitals for HPAI H5N1 and seasonal influenza viruses in East Jakarta district to assess the public health impact of influenza in Indonesia. Epidemiological and clinical data were collected from outpatients with influenza-like illness (ILI) and hospitalized patients with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI); respiratory specimens were obtained for influenza testing by real-time reverse transcription–polymerase chain reaction. During October 2011–September 2012, 1131/3278 specimens from ILI cases (34·5%) and 276/1787 specimens from SARI cases (15·4%) tested positive for seasonal influenza viruses. The prevalence of influenza virus infections was highest during December–May and the proportion testing positive was 76% for ILI and 36% for SARI during their respective weeks of peak activity. No HPAI H5N1 virus infections were identified, including hundreds of ILI and SARI patients with recent poultry exposures, whereas seasonal influenza was an important contributor to acute respiratory disease in East Jakarta. Overall, 668 (47%) of influenza viruses were influenza B, 384 (27%) were A(H1N1)pdm09, and 359 (25%) were H3. While additional data over multiple years are needed, our findings suggest that seasonal influenza prevention efforts, including influenza vaccination, should target the months preceding the rainy season.

Data were extracted from the case records of UK patients admitted with laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. White and non-White patients were characterized by age, sex, socioeconomic status, pandemic wave and indicators of pre-morbid health status. Logistic regression examined differences by ethnicity in patient characteristics, care pathway and clinical outcomes; multivariable models controlled for potential confounders. Whites (n = 630) and non-Whites (n = 510) differed by age, socioeconomic status, pandemic wave of admission, pregnancy, recorded obesity, previous and current smoking, and presence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. After adjustment for a priori confounders non-Whites were less likely to have received pre-admission antibiotics [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0·43, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0·28–0·68, P < 0·001) but more likely to receive antiviral drugs as in-patients (aOR 1·53, 95% CI 1·08–2·18, P = 0·018). However, there were no significant differences by ethnicity in delayed admission, severity at presentation for admission, or likelihood of severe outcome.

The first human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus was reported in Shanghai, China in March 2013. An additional 32 cases of human H7N9 infection were identified in the following months from March to April 2013 in Shanghai. Here we conducted a case-control study of the patients with H7N9 infection (n = 25) using controls matched by age, sex, and residence to determine risk factors for H7N9 infection. Our findings suggest that chronic disease and frequency of visiting a live poultry market (>10 times, or 1–9 times during the 2 weeks before illness onset) were likely to be significantly associated with H7N9 infection, with the odds ratios being 4·07 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1·32–12·56], 10·61 (95% CI 1·85–60·74), and 3·76 (95% CI 1·31–10·79), respectively. Effective strategies for live poultry market control should be reinforced and ongoing education of the public is warranted to promote behavioural changes that can help to eliminate direct or indirect contact with influenza A(H7N9) virus.

Laboratory-based surveillance data is essential for monitoring trends in the incidence of enteric disease. Current Canadian human enteric surveillance systems report only confirmed cases of human enteric disease and are often unable to capture the number of negative test results. Data from 9116 hospital stool specimens from the Waterloo Region in Canada, with a mixed urban and rural population of about 500 000 were analysed to investigate the use of stool submission data and its role in reporting bias when determining the incidence of enteric disease. The proportion of stool specimens positive for Campylobacter spp. was highest in the 15–29 years age group, and in the 5–14 years age group for Salmonella spp. and E. coli O157:H7. By contrast, the age-specific incidence rates were highest for all three pathogens in the 0–4 years age group which also had the highest stool submission rate. This suggests that variations in age-specific stool submission rates are influencing current interpretation of surveillance data.

A restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) assay was developed to examine the genetic relationship between 67 (29 Indian, 38 global) rotavirus isolates of human, bovine and porcine neonates. The assay involved direct digestion of RT–PCR amplified VP7 cDNAs with three restriction enzymes (VspI, HaeIII, NlaIV) independently. Forty-eight RFLP patterns were identified for all 67 strains, and of these 20 patterns were associated with Indian isolates. A correlation between the restriction patterns and G type was apparent through deduction of enzyme restriction sites from known sequences. Major G serotypes (G1, G2, G6, G8) with a few mixed types could be differentiated where there was a positive assortment of intrinsic serotypes from multiple host origin, and certain single or combined enzyme profiles were highly dominant in the population. Significant genetic variations were established between global and Indian isolates and none of the RFLP patterns were shared between them. These data suggest that the Indian wild-type rotavirus population is distinguishable based on the VP7 gene, and co-circulation of distinct strains in different hosts is foremost, indicating the possible likelihood of inter-species transmission.

Acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI) is an important public health priority worldwide. Few studies have captured the burden of AGI in developing countries, and even fewer have focused on Indigenous populations. This study aimed to estimate the incidence and determinants of AGI within a Batwa Pygmy Indigenous population in southwestern Uganda. A retrospective cross-sectional survey was conducted in January 2013 via a census of 10 Batwa communities (n = 583 participants). The AGI case definition included any self-reported symptoms of diarrhoea or vomiting in the past 2 weeks. The 14-day prevalence of AGI was 6·17% [95% confidence interval (CI) 4·2–8·1], corresponding to an annual incidence rate of 1·66 (95% CI 1·1–2·2) episodes of AGI per person-year. AGI prevalence was greatest in children aged <3 years (11·3%). A multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression model controlling for clustering at the community level indicated that exposure to goats [odds ratio (OR) 2·6, 95% CI 1·0–6·8], being a child aged <3 years (OR 4·8, 95% CI 1·2–18·9), and being a child, adolescent or senior Batwa in the higher median of wealth (OR 7·0, 95% CI 3·9–9·2) were significantly associated with having AGI. This research represents the first Indigenous community-census level study of AGI in Uganda, and highlights the substantial burden of AGI within this population.

In 2006 we initiated an enhanced laboratory-based surveillance of Salmonella and Shigella infections in Shanghai, China. A total of 4483 Salmonella and 2226 Shigella isolates were recovered from stool specimens by 2012. In 80 identified Salmonella serovars, Enteritidis (34·5%) and Typhimurium (26·2%) were the most common. Shigella (S.) sonnei accounted for 63·9% of human Shigella infections over the same time period, and replaced S. flexneri to become the primary cause of shigellosis since 2010. Overall, a high level of antimicrobial resistance was observed in Salmonella and Shigella, particularly to nalidixic acid, ampicillin, and tetracycline. Ciprofloxacin resistance was common in Salmonella Typhimurium (21·0%) and S. flexneri (37·6%). The cephalosporin resistance in both pathogens also increased over the years, ranging from 3·4% to 7·0% in Salmonella, and from 10·4% to 28·6% in Shigella. Resistance to multiple antimicrobials was also identified in a large number of the isolates. This study provides insight into the distribution of Salmonella and Shigella in diarrhoeal diseases.