The monitoring and surveillance of animal diseases is becoming increasinglyimportant to policy-makers in Great Britain particularly given recent incursionsof avian influenza and the emergence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy. Tomeet this surveillance objective, data from British livestock is collected andanalysed retrospectively on an ongoing basis. However, these data can also beanalysed prospectively within an early detection system which raises alerts tosignificant increases in disease reporting soon after they occur in the field.The feasibility of such an approach has been examined previously forSalmonella. This paper applied the approach to a furthersubset of surveillance data to alert those monitoring disease to increases inpotentially new and emerging diseases. Thus far, the analysis, conducted on aquarterly basis, has proved a useful additional tool in enhanced surveillance byraising alerts to significant increases in several syndromes in both sheep andcattle.

Since Kenya first reported Rift Valley fever (RVF)-like disease in livestock in 1912, the country has reported the most frequent epizootics of RVF disease. To determine the pattern of disease spread across the country after its introduction in 1912, and to identify regions vulnerable to the periodic epizootics, annual livestock disease records at the Department of Veterinary Services from 1910 to 2007 were analysed in order to document the number and location of RVF-infected livestock herds. A total of 38/69 (55%) administrative districts in the country had reported RVF epizootics by the end of 2007. During the 1912–1950 period, the disease was confined to a district in Rift Valley province that is prone to flooding and where livestock were raised in proximity with wildlife. Between 1951 and 2007, 11 national RVF epizootics were recorded with an average inter-epizootic period of 3·6 years (range 1–7 years); in addition, all epizootics occurred in years when the average annual rainfall increased by more than 50% in the affected districts. Whereas the first two national epizootics in 1951 and 1955 were confined to eight districts in the Rift Valley province, there was a sustained epizootic between 1961 and 1964 that spread the virus to over 30% of the districts across six out of eight provinces. The Western and Nyanza provinces, located on the southwestern region of the country, had never reported RVF infections by 2007. The probability of a district being involved in a national epizootic was fivefold higher (62%) in districts that had previously reported disease compared to districts that had no prior disease activity (11%). These findings suggests that once introduced into certain permissive ecologies, the RVF virus becomes enzootic, making the region vulnerable to periodic epizootics that were probably precipitated by amplification of resident virus associated with heavy rainfall and flooding.

Increasing prevalence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) has been reported in Canada. We report the results of a prospective surveillance of MRSA infections in Alberta over a consecutive 3-year period. A total of 8910 unique clinical MRSA isolates was analysed from July 2005 to June 2008. The incidence of MRSA infection increased over the study period and was highest in males, age group ⩾85 years, and the Calgary Area. CMRSA10 (USA300) and CMRSA2 (USA100/800) were the most common PFGE strain types, representing 53·0% and 27·9% of all isolates, respectively. Significant differences were noted between MRSA strains in the source of infection and antimicrobial susceptibility. The incidence of MRSA infection in Alberta has nearly doubled in the last 3 years; this is attributed to the emergence of CMRSA10 as the predominant strain.

We report a major outbreak of rabies in dogs and other domestic animals that occurred in eastern Bhutan between May 2005 and November 2007. The outbreak peaked in February 2006 and subsided by the end of April 2006 with sporadic cases reported until November 2007. Rabies affected 18 of the 40 sub-districts in the three eastern districts of Bhutan. There were reportedly one human and 256 domestic animal fatalities. The outbreak affected cattle (n=141, 55%), dogs (n=106, 41%), horses (n=7, 3%) and cats (n=2, 1%). Rabies was primarily diagnosed by clinical signs but 36 cases were confirmed by fluorescent antibody test of brain samples. High densities and movements of free-roaming dogs might have been responsible for the rapid spread and persistence of the infection for a longer period than expected in dogs in eastern Bhutan.

Systematic national surveillance of foodborne disease outbreaks effectively serves the development of public health policy on food safety. The Health Protection Agency has maintained a collaborative surveillance system for foodborne outbreaks in England and Wales since 1992. Up to 2008, 2429 foodborne outbreaks were identified, described and analysed for changes over time. Salmonella spp. accounted for half of the outbreaks, although the proportion of these decreased over the surveillance period. Similarly, the proportion of outbreaks caused by Clostridium perfringens decreased, while those attributed to Campylobacter spp. and Vero cytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli O157 increased. Although poultry meat was the most frequently implicated food vehicle in outbreaks followed by miscellaneous foods and red meats, the proportion of outbreaks attributed to meats in fact decreased over time but those linked to miscellaneous foods did not. Over the surveillance period, the proportion of outbreaks linked to eggs and S. Enteritidis non-phage-type 4, particularly in food service establishments, increased, highlighting the importance of this organism/setting/vehicle association. Contributory factors in most outbreaks were cross-contamination, inadequate heat treatment, and inappropriate food storage. This study describes the overall decline in foodborne outbreaks, providing evidence that the introduction and adherence to effective control measures provide the best means of minimizing the risk of foodborne infection.

Dengue is an emerging arboviral disease and currently poses the greatest arboviral threat to human health. In recent decades, there has been a substantial increase in dengue outbreaks in many parts of the world including India. We performed an in-depth investigation of a major dengue outbreak in Andhra Pradesh, southern India in 2007 by serology, virus isolation, RT–PCR and genotyping. The results revealed an unusual emergence of dengue virus type 4 (DENV-4) along with the prevailing DENV-3. Phylogenetic analysis based on complete envelope gene of 182 globally diverse DENV-4 isolates demonstrated the involvement of a unique clade of genotype I of DENV-4 in the outbreak. This study also demonstrated a clear shift in the dominant serotype from DENV-3 to DENV-4 in India. This is the first report regarding the molecular characterization of Indian isolates of DENV-4, which has the potential to be involved in future outbreaks.

Data about the effectiveness of different antibiotic regimens for the treatment of acute Q fever from clinical studies is scarce. We analysed the antibiotic treatment regimens of acute Q fever patients in 2007 and 2008 in The Netherlands and assessed whether hospitalization after a minimum of 2 days antibiotic therapy was related to the initial antibiotic therapy. Clinical data on antibiotic treatment and risk factors of acute Q fever patients were obtained from general practitioner medical records and self-reported by patients. For the 438 study patients, doxycycline was the most commonly prescribed initial antibiotic in both study years. After adjustments for confounding factors, doxycycline (200 mg/day), moxifloxacin, as well as other possibly effective antibiotics [including other new fluoroquinolones and doxycycline (100 mg/day)] showed significant lower risks for hospitalization compared to β-lactam antibiotics and azithromycin (reference group), with the lowest risk for doxycycline (200 mg/day) (odds ratio 0·04, 95% confidence interval 0·01–0·22). These data support current guidelines that recommend doxycycline as the first choice antibiotic for treating acute Q fever.

To estimate the change in the seroprevalence and risk factors for toxoplasmosis in The Netherlands, a study was conducted in the general population in 2006/2007, similarly designed as a previous study in 1995/1996. Testing 5541 sera for IgG antibodies against Toxoplasma gondii showed a marked decrease of the overall seroprevalence to 26·0% [95% confidence interval (CI) 24·0–28·0], compared to 40·5% (95% CI 37·5–43·4) in 1995/1996. In women of reproductive age the seroprevalence decreased from 35·2% (95% CI 32·9–38·6) in 1995/1996 to 18·5% (95% CI 16·2–20·7) in 2006/2007, leaving the majority of pregnant women susceptible to primary infection with T. gondii and their babies to congenital toxoplasmosis. In participants aged ⩾20 years, Toxoplasma seropositivity was associated with living in the Northwest, living in urban areas, low educational level, consumption of raw pork, keeping a cat, and not having occupational contact with clients or patients. For younger participants, risk factors were keeping sheep or cattle, consumption of raw unwashed vegetables and putting sand in the mouth.

The AEGISS (Ascertainment and Enhancement of Disease Surveillance and Statistics) project uses spatio-temporal statistical methods to identify anomalies in the incidence of gastrointestinal infections in the UK. The focus of this paper is the modelling of temporal variation in incidence using data from the Southampton area in southern England. We identified and fitted a hierarchical stochastic model for the time series of daily incident cases to enable probabilistic prediction of temporal variation in risk, and demonstrated the resulting gains in predictive accuracy by comparison with a conventional analysis based on an over-dispersed Poisson log-linear regression model. We used Bayesian methods of inference in order to incorporate parameter uncertainty in our predictive inference of risk. Incorporation of our model in the overall spatio-temporal model, will contribute to the accurate and timely prediction of unusually high food-poisoning incidence, and thus to the identification and prevention of future outbreaks.

Acute gastroenteritis (AG) is considered as one of the major health problems affecting humans of all ages. A number of viruses have been recognized as important causes of this disease. Recently, Aichi virus has been shown to play an aetiological role in sporadic infections and outbreaks of AG. A study on surveillance of enteric viruses was conducted during 2004–2008 in three cities in Maharashtra state, western India. A total of 1240 stool specimens from children aged ⩽8 years hospitalized for AG were screened for the presence of Aichi virus by RT–PCR of the 3C–3D junction region followed by sequencing for the identification of genotype. Aichi virus was detected at a prevalence of 1·1% in the <5 years age group and characterized as genotype B. This is the first report on the circulation of Aichi virus genotype B in India.

The prevalence of antibodies to hepatitis A virus (HAV) was assessed in a nationwide sample (n=6229) in The Netherlands in 2006–2007, and compared to the seroprevalence in a similar study in 1995–1996 (n=7376). The overall seroprevalence increased from 34% in 1995–1996 to 39% in 2006–2007, mainly due to vaccination of travellers and an increased immigrant population. Risk factors remain travelling to, and originating from, endemic regions, and vaccination is targeted currently at these risk groups. Our results show a trend of increasing age of the susceptible population. These people would also benefit from HAV vaccination because they are likely to develop clinically serious symptoms after infection, and are increasingly at risk of exposure through imported viruses through foods or travellers. The cost-effectiveness of adding elderly people born after the Second World War as a target group for prophylactic vaccination to reduce morbidity and mortality after HAV infection should be assessed.

Following an outbreak of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) at a residential summer camp for boys aged 10–16 years, we assessed secondary household transmission of the novel virus after their return home. Of 212 study participants who attended camp, 49 had confirmed or probable influenza for a primary attack rate of 23%. Of 87 exposed household contacts who did not attend camp, only three instances of probable transmission were observed, for a household secondary attack rate of 3·5%. All secondary cases occurred in households where the ill camp attendee returned home 1 day after onset of illness, with an attack rate of 14·3% in household contacts in this category. Returning home after peak infectivity to others and advanced warning prior to reintegration of sick individuals into the household probably contributed to the overall low secondary attack rate observed.

The purpose of this study was to develop a standardized tool for the assessment of surveillance systems on zoonoses and animal diseases. We reviewed three existing methods and combined them to develop a semi-quantitative assessment tool associating their strengths and providing a standardized way to display multilevel results. We developed a set of 78 assessment criteria divided into ten sections, representing the functional parts of a surveillance system. Each criterion was given a score according to the prescription of a scoring guide. Three graphical assessment outputs were generated using a specific combination of the scores. Output 1 is a general overview through a series of pie charts synthesizing the scores of each section. Output 2 is a histogram representing the quality of eight critical control points. Output 3 is a radar chart representing the level reached by ten system attributes. This tool was applied on five surveillance networks.

In order to monitor epidemiological trends, Cryptosporidium-positive samples (n=4509) from diarrhoeic patients were typed. Compared to the previous 4 years, the proportion of Cryptosporidium hominis cases in 2004–2006 increased to 57·3%, while 38·5% were C. parvum. The remaining 4·2% cases included mixed C. parvum and C. hominis infections, C. meleagridis, C. felis, C. ubiquitum and a novel genotype. When the typing results were combined with enhanced surveillance data to monitor risk exposures, C. hominis was linked to urban dwelling, previous diarrhoea in the household, any travel especially abroad, and using a swimming or paddling pool. C. parvum was linked to having a private water supply, contact with surface water, visiting or living on a farm, and contact with farm animal faeces. The proportion of laboratory-confirmed indigenous cases acquired from direct contact with farm animals was estimated to be 25% for C. parvum and 10% of all reported Cryptosporidium cases.

Vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus bloodstream infections (VRE-BSI) are a growing problem with few clinical trials to guide therapy. We conducted a retrospective study of management and predictors of mortality for VRE-BSI at a tertiary-care centre from January 2005 to August 2008. Univariate and multivariable analyses examined the relationship of patient characteristics and antibiotic therapy with 30-day all-cause mortality. Rates of VRE-BSI increased from 0·06 to 0·17 infections/1000 patient-days (P=0·03). For 235 patients, 30-day mortality was 34·9%. Patients were primarily treated with linezolid (44·2%) or daptomycin (36·5%). Factors associated with mortality were haemodialysis [odds ratio (OR) 3·2, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·6–6·3, P=0·007], mechanical ventilation (OR 3·7, 95% CI 1·3–10·4, P=0·01), and malnutrition (OR 2·0, 95% CI 1·0–4·0, P=0·046). Use of linezolid, but not daptomycin (P=0·052) showed a trend towards an association with survival. In conclusion, VRE-BSI is a growing problem, associated with significant 30-day mortality. Multiple factors were associated with poor outcomes at our hospital.

In order to determine the prevalence of antibody against 2009 H1N1 influenza in Beijing, we conducted a serological survey in 710 subjects, 1 month after the epidemic peak. We found that 13·8% of our cohort was seropositive. Subjects aged ⩾60 years recorded the lowest seroprevalence (4·5%). The age-weighted seroprevalence of 14·0% was far lower than the supposed infection rate at the epidemic peak, derived from the basic reproduction number for 2009 H1N1 virus. For subjects who had received the pandemic vaccine seroprevalence was 51·4%. In subjects aged ⩾60 years the seasonal influenza vaccination was not significantly associated with being seropositive. Our study suggests that many factors, and not just the immunological level against 2009 H1N1 influenza in the community, affected the spread of the virus within the population of Beijing.

Within Europe, Puumala virus (PUUV) is the causal agent of nephropathia epidemica (NE) in humans, a zoonotic disease with increasing significance in recent years. In a region of Belgium with a historically high incidence of NE, bank voles (the PUUV reservoir hosts), were monitored for PUUV IgG antibody prevalence in nine study sites before, during, and after the highest NE outbreak recorded in Belgium in 2005. We found that the highest numbers of PUUV IgG-positive voles coincided with the peak of NE cases at the regional level, indicating that a PUUV epizootic in bank voles directly led to the NE outbreak in humans. On a local scale, PUUV infection in voles was patchy and not correlated to NE incidence before the epizootic. However, during the epizootic period PUUV infection spread in the vole populations and was significantly correlated to local NE incidence. Initially, local bank-vole numbers were positively associated with local PUUV infection risk in voles, but this was no longer the case after the homogeneous spreading of PUUV during the PUUV outbreak.

Mathematical models of influenza pandemics are sensitive to changes in contact rates between individuals. We conducted population-based telephone surveys in four North Carolina counties to determine the number of social interactions between individuals during the 2007–2008 influenza season. Influenza activity was monitored through sentinel medical practices. Among 3845 adults, the number of social contacts varied with age, was lower on weekends than on weekdays, and further decreased during school holiday periods. Adults with influenza-like illnesses had fewer social contacts. Adults' contacts in the community setting increased during periods of peak influenza activity. Among 290 children, potential contacts (i.e. other people in the same location) were lowest among preschool-age children and decreased on weekends and during school holidays. In adjusted analyses, children's potential social contacts did not change during periods of peak influenza activity. These results should be useful for modelling influenza epidemics and pandemics and in planning mitigation and response strategies.

We report a nosocomial outbreak of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) that affected six patients in June 2009 in Ghaem Hospital, Mashhad, Iran, apparently related to one index case. The last four cases were healthcare workers. Infection was spread by percutaneous exposure to two cases, and probably by direct contact with blood, clothes and sheets, to three others. The diagnosis in the two fatal cases was not confirmed virologically. The diagnosis in four cases who survived was confirmed by specific reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. The patients were treated with ribavirin. In endemic areas, every patient presenting with a febrile haemorrhagic syndrome should be considered to have a viral haemorrhagic fever until proven otherwise. Patients who meet the criteria for probable CCHF should be admitted to hospital and treated with ribavirin. Appropriate isolation precautions should be immediately initiated.

Chagas' disease is an opportunistic infection in the setting of HIV/AIDS. The arrival of HIV-positive immigrants from endemic areas to non-endemic countries makes possible the detection of Chagas' disease in this group of patients. We describe the results of a screening programme conducted in the HIV-positive immigrant population arriving from endemic areas who attended the Tropical Medicine Unit of Hospital Universitario Central of Asturias during 2008. We determined anti-T. cruzi antibodies in all HIV patients arriving from endemic areas who were followed up. The ID-Chagas antibody test was used as a screening assay. The positive cases were confirmed with ELISA, IFAT and PCR. We analysed 19 HIV-positive immigrants, of which two (10·5%) had a positive antibody test for Chagas' disease confirmed. PCR was positive in both cases. There was no difference between the co-infected and the non-co-infected patients with respect to race, place of birth and residence, CD4+ cell count, and HIV viral load count. Direct microscopic examination of blood was negative in both positive cases. The positive patients were a man from Bolivia and woman from Paraguay. The overlap of HIV and T. cruzi infection occurs not only in endemic areas but also in non-endemic areas of North America and Europe where the diagnosis may be even more difficult due to low diagnostic suspicion. The implementation of screening programmes in this population group is needed for the early diagnostic of Chagas' disease.