Hostname: page-component-7b7567c8c-fvjsw Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2026-11-12T21:27:19.082Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Long Peace: A Reconsideration

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  09 July 2003

Randolph M. Siverson and
Michael D. Ward

Abstract

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the 'Save PDF' action button.

In this article, we reconsider the rarity of the Long Peace in the light of a probability model that targets the collective experience of major powers. Our examination shows that consecutive periods of peace equal to the forty-two years of the so-called Long Peace are not uncommon over the past eighteen decades—these periods occurred slightly more than 30 percent of the time. The period between 1816 and 1913 actually contains less war involvement by major powers than the period of the putative Long Peace. Our analysis demonstrates that long periods of major power peace are not unusual; periods of major power war are more exceptional than normal. Thus we conclude that the Long Peace is not rare and that its role in evaluating theories of war is misleading.

Information

Type
Research Note
Information
International Organization , Volume 56 , Issue 3 , Summer 2002, pp. 679 - 691
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 2002

References

Blechman, Barry M., and Puchala, Donald. 1991. When Empires Meet: The Long Peace in Long-Term Perspective. In The Long Postwar Peace: Contending Explanations and Projections, edited by Kegley, Charles W. Jr., 177–202. New York: HarperCollins.Google Scholar
Brecher, Michael, and Wilkenfeld, J.. 1991. International Crises and Global Instability: the Myth of the Long Peace. In The Long Postwar Peace: Contending Explanations and Projections, edited by Kegley, Charles W. Jr., 85–105. New York: HarperCollins.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce J. 1990. Big Wars, Little Wars: Avoiding Selection Bias. International Interactions 16 (3):159–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Calvocoressi, Peter, and Wint, Guy. 1972. Total War: The Story of World War II. New York: Pantheon Books.Google Scholar
Gaddis, John L. 1987. The Long Peace. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Gaddis, John L. 1991. Great Illusions, the Long Peace and the Future of the International System. In The Long Postwar Peace: Contending Explanations and Projections, edited by Kegley, Charles W. Jr., 25–55. New York: HarperCollins.Google Scholar
Gleditsch, Kristian S., and Ward, Michael D.. 1999. A Revised List of Independent States Since 1816. International Interactions 25 (4):393–413.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huntington, Samuel. 1958. Arms Races: Prerequisites and Results. Public Policy 8:41–86.Google Scholar
Kegley, Charles W. Jr., 1991a. Explaining Great-Power Peace: The Sources of Prolonged Postwar Stability. In The Long Postwar Peace: Contending Explanations and Projections, edited by Kegley, Charles W. Jr., 3–20. New York: HarperCollins.Google Scholar
Kegley, Charles W. Jr., ed. 1991b. The Long Postwar Peace: Contending Explanations and Projections. New York: HarperCollins.Google Scholar
Levy, Jack. 1991. Long Cycles, Hegemonic Transitions and the Long Peace. In The Long Postwar Peace: Contending Explanations and Projections, edited by Kegley, Charles W. Jr., 147–76. New York: HarperCollins.Google Scholar
Lieberson, Stanley. 1985. Making It Count: The Improvement of Social Research and Theory. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Lieberson, Stanley. 1991. Small Ns and Big Conclusions: An Examination of the Reasoning in Comparative Studies Based on a Small Number of Cases. Social Forces 70 (2):307–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Organski, A. F. K., and Kugler, Jacek, 1980. The War Ledger. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rasler, Karen, and Thompson, William R.. 2000. Global War and the Political Economy of Structural Change. In The Handbook of War Studies, edited by Midlarsky, Manus, 301–31. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Ray, James L. 1991. Threats to the Protracted Peace: World Politics According to Murphy. In The Long Postwar Peace: Contending Explanations and Projections, edited by Kegley, Charles W. Jr., 329–44. New York: HarperCollins.Google Scholar
Russett, Bruce M., Singer, J. David, and Small, Melvin. 1968. National Political Units in the Twentieth Century: A Standardized List. American Political Science Review 62 (3):932–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Singer, J. David. 1991. Peace in the Global System: Displacement, Interregnum, or Transformation? In The Long Postwar Peace: Contending Explanations and Projections, edited by Kegley, Charles W. Jr., 56–84. New York: HarperCollins.Google Scholar
Singer, J. David, and Small, Melvin. 1972. The Wages of War, 1816–1965: A Statistical Handbook. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Small, Melvin, and Singer, J. David. 1982. Resort to Arms: International and Civil Wars, 1816–1980. Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage.Google Scholar
Vasquez, John. 1991. The Deterrence Myth: Nuclear Weapons and the Prevention of Nuclear War. In The Long Postwar Peace: Contending Explanations and Projections, edited by Kegley, Charles W. Jr., 205–23. New York: HarperCollins.Google Scholar