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David Frayman, London School of Economics and Political Science,Christian Krekel, London School of Economics and Political Science,Richard Layard, London School of Economics and Political Science,Sara MacLennan, London School of Economics and Political Science,Isaac Parkes, London School of Economics and Political Science
Studies of the effects of the police on crime suggest that a 1 per cent increase in local police numbers will reduce local crime by 0.5 per cent. As for the effect of crime on the wellbeing of residents, a leading British study estimated that a 0.5 per cent fall in crime would increase average life satisfaction by 0.0011 points (out of 10). In this chapter we combine these findings, calculating the BCR for one more police officer, using the Treasury approach, which values one extra point of wellbeing for one year at £15,258. The result is a healthy BCR of 12:1.
Since at least 1989, prosecutors have sought to use rap music evidence to convict defendants. To date, nearly 700 cases involving this practice have been identified from commercial databases, media reports, and word-of-mouth. Cases exist in virtually every state and in both federal and state courts. Over time, “rap music evidence” has evolved to include not just lyrics and songs handwritten on paper but also recorded songs, videos, photographs, hand signs, and fashion choices. As technology has advanced, evidence now may be found online or offline.
How does the state deliver justice to citizens? Are certain groups disadvantaged whilst seeking help from law enforcement and the courts? This book charts, for the first time, the full trajectory of accessing justice in India's criminal justice system, highlighting a pattern of multi-stage discrimination and unequal outcomes for women seeking restitution from the state. To probe how discrimination can be combated, the book tests whether gender representation in law enforcement — in the form of all-female enclaves or women-only police stations — affects change. The book demonstrates how certain forms of representation can lead to unintended consequences. By utilizing a range of research designs, the book not only casts a light on justice delivery in the world's largest democracy, but also transports readers into the world of crime and punishment in India.
The regulation of the night hours did not depend on public illumination. A symbol of political presence in Europe, streetlights would have been a sign of gross negligence in the combustible cities of early modern Japan. In their stead, legislative alternatives were put in place by shoguns and domain lords to keep the night in check. Their path toward the regulation of the night may have differed from that of their European counterparts, but the endpoint was the same: By controlling darkness, they demonstrated both around-the-clock presence and a commitment to order. The beliefs and practices of the urban residents for the most part aligned with the vision of rulers and administrators. Regulation, thus, came not just from above but also from below. The Tokugawa urban night, regulated from above and below, challenges triumphal rhetorics of luminous progress crafted by the Meiji ideologues first and picked up by modern historians later. More broadly, it shows how Tokugawa Japan participated in the global transformation of the night not by following a path traced by others but by charting its own.
This article contributes a machine learning approach to detecting environmental crimes in Brazil. Detecting these crimes is important for the health of the environment and public safety. The measurement of environmental crimes is challenging, in part due to efforts of those involved to remain hidden. However, administrative data on embargoes—legal liens on parcels of land—identify locations where the government documented some of these crimes. Using these data, the analysis develops a method for detecting yet-unidentified locations of these crimes. Embargo data are merged with a wide range of predictors that capture features of the physical environment, as well as demographic, socioeconomic, political, and public safety attributes. After training a series of models on these data, the random forest (RF) model performs best (AUC = 0.92). Overall, a combination of changes in vegetation, homicide rates, the prevalence of young men, human development, employment, the presence of a poverty reduction program, and political factors that capture local electoral competition and participation are important predictors of illegal deforestation. These findings—some unsurprising and some surprising—show the value of multicausal, cross-disciplinary approaches to understanding and detecting environmental crime. The practical gains from integrating remote sensing, a wide range of administrative data, and machine learning help build more effective crime detection, enhancing the government’s ability to conduct forest enforcement more safely and efficiently. Future research is promising as more and better data become available, and the approach can be extended to detect other illicit behavior, in Brazil and elsewhere.
The chapter looks at addictions in the context of evolution and evolutionary mismatch, noting that feeding addiction relates to ultra-processed food. It compares addiction to such foods and to drugs. Sexual addiction can be to partnered sex or to pornography. In love addiction, the target is one individual. The notion of gambling addiction is discussed. Exercise can have some addictive properties (e.g. escalation, craving, and withdrawal symptoms). The chapter then returns to the topic of non-suicidal self-injurious behaviour. Somewhat similar to NSSI in showing addictive properties, are body-focussed repetitive behaviours (e.g. hair pulling and skin picking). Suicidal behaviour can provide a kind of long-term preoccupation and has overlap with chemical and sexual addictions. Crime including violence can take on properties of addiction. There is a comorbidity between domestic violence and drug addiction. Ding and Li describe digital addiction as a ‘functional impairment’ and a ‘global health problem’.
This Element explores how citizens understand general crime and violence against women, especially intimate partner violence (IPV). Drawing on interdisciplinary literature, this Element makes the case that cognitive heuristics and risk assessments, in particular, shape the way people see crime versus IPV. The central argument is that cognitive heuristics that generate risk perceptions help us understand why the public worries excessively about crime, with important political consequences, while downplaying IPV. This fosters distinct attitudes toward IPV and general crime. Accordingly, this Element sheds light on why victim-blaming is so prevalent in the context of IPV. Using original survey experiments from Brazil and Mexico, the study shows that respondents attribute more responsibility for prevention to the victim for IPV than for general crimes, display optimism bias with acquaintance victimization, and approve different types of policy remedies to deal with general crime and IPV.
Chapter 6 looks at the ways in which frenzy was weaponized during the many religio-political upheavals of the period. As a figure of speech, it offered rich material for English polemicists, who knew that questioning their opponents’ sanity was more effective than simply refuting their claims. As a literal diagnosis, frenzy also had a practical use: it could silence politically inconvenient people without making a show. This chapter shows how its conferral was used to justify the incarceration of prophets, mystics, and kings. Yet the diagnosis had one serious drawback: it gave its recipients the gift of innocence. Frantic persons were incapable of crime, and could neither be convicted nor punished for their actions. If a recipient later became not just inconvenient but too dangerous to live, any previous diagnosis – no matter how spurious – had to be redacted from the record. This was a problem for the religious polemicists too: the aim was to pathologize ‘heretics’ ‘papists’, ‘puritans’, and ‘sectarians’, not to excuse them from all wrongdoing. Eventually, this chapter argues, that flaw drove Anglican polemicists to abandon frenzy for a new diagnosis: ‘melancholy enthusiasm’.
For several decades, psychiatrists, social critics, and writers of other stripes have warned us about the havoc that narcissists wreak in our everyday lives. In this book, social scientist Mark S. Davis maintains that narcissism is much more than individual pathology; indeed, it is a virus that also infects organizations and entire societies. Examining America's history, this book broadens the discussion of narcissism beyond a troubling personality style. It delves into how superiority, exploitation, retaliation, and a lack of empathy contribute to contemporary issues such as race relations, immigration, and the marginalization of those deemed “deviant” or different. By examining the tragic interplay between narcissism and history, this volume offers solutions to answer the question:Can anyone in modern society, informed by its past, devise a treatment plan for a nation's personality disorder?
What becomes of young people who display strong psychopathy traits? By combining cutting-edge research with interviews from over 500 incarcerated youth assessed for psychopathy and involved in serious, violent offenses, this book investigates whether they are destined to persist in crime throughout their lives. Evan McCuish explores not only long-term offending patterns but also psychopathy's influence on relationships, employment, substance use, and mortality. Through this, the text clarifies the meaning of the clinical construct of psychopathy and debunks myths and misconceptions popularised by the true crime genre. This allows readers to more reliably interpret the accuracy of popular culture descriptions of psychopathy. Synthesising over 100 years of research, this book defines psychopathy and contributes new knowledge to the field. It is ideal for students, scholars, and practitioners in psychology, criminology, social work, and law seeking further insight into this intriguing disorder.
Recent research documents that many research designs in the social sciences are underpowered: they can detect only extremely large – often implausible – effects. I show that this problem is structural in the workhorse approach to studying the immigration-crime link: regressing changes in aggregate crime rates on exogenous shifts in local immigrant shares. While this design may identify changes in native criminal behavior, I demonstrate that it is largely uninformative regarding the difference in crime propensities between immigrants and natives. Because immigrants typically comprise a small fraction of the population, even large group-level differences are mechanically diluted. I formalize the minimum detectable gap - the smallest immigrant-native crime difference these regressions can reliably distinguish from zero given standard design parameters. Using Monte Carlo simulations calibrated to real-world immigration and crime data, I demonstrate that conventional designs only achieve adequate statistical power with implausibly large crime differentials and extreme immigration shocks.
A potentially powerful argument for police abolition appeals to root causes of crime. The root causes of crime are (e.g.) poverty and inequality caused by capitalism. By targeting crime at the roots, we can render the police obsolete and abolish them. I argue here that the root cause argument fails. Despite the suggestive metaphor, the fundamental causes of crime are deep and valuable, or in other words not uproot-able. They are essential to us, or we have good reason not to uproot them. To show this, I develop some simple models or recipes for crime inspired by Thomas Hobbes’s model of conflict in the state of nature and by contemporary theories of crime. The models suggest that at best we can manage these causes, and in turn the resulting crime. There is, however, no hope of fundamental reforms that do away with the need for social monitoring and sanctioning, or policing.
In welfare states, there is considerable interest in the potential of guaranteed income (GI) experiments to improve the well-being of (marginalised) populations. However, understanding the mechanisms by which GI affects interrelationships between financial well-being, mental health, and crime and under which conditions is limited. This paper addresses these gaps by analysing a Dutch GI experiment involving fourteen forensic psychiatric clients, employing a mixed-methods approach. Using realistic evaluation principles, the study identifies four key mechanisms that contributed to a decrease in recidivism risk: meeting basic needs; alleviating financial scarcity and its psychological repercussions; strengthening social connections; and facilitating social withdrawal. Additionally, contextual factors such as social networks, identity, and life events are explored to explain variations among participants over time. Our analysis illuminates the intricate relationships among livelihood security, health care, and criminal behaviour while exploring the potential for targeted welfare interventions to enhance both individual health outcomes and public safety.
In the years 1803–1807, a dramatic triple murder case in Shouzhou, Anhui, convulsed officialdom in the Jiangnan region and drove the Jiaqing emperor to exasperation. At a time when many in power felt a sense of crisis as “High Qing” imperial ambitions receded, each stone turned over in this meandering investigation revealed another source of anxiety fitted to the age: incest, poisoning, negligent and corrupt officials, amoral and abusive local gentry, misbehaving yamen runners, pettifogging litigators, and, to top it all off, deadly serious rumors of a subversive opera. This article traces the investigations into both the murders and the theater rumor. What made the former so convoluted and vexing, while the latter was alarming yet easier to resolve? Surprisingly, the Imperial Household’s carefully cultivated relationship with the theater world of Jiangnan realized, in miniature, a level of state–society coordination Qing rulers wished for but which often escaped them elsewhere.
Chapter 3 focuses on Hong Kong, where there were 261 death sentences but no executions after 1966. Chinese hostility to democratic reforms prevented the constitutional advances that occurred in other colonies in this period and left the British government vulnerable to parliamentary scrutiny in the wake of an execution. Previous studies argued that Britain required Hong Kong’s governors to commute death sentences from the mid 1960s, but colonial correspondence shows that clemency was not automatic until a decade later. Clemency appeals were judged on a case by case basis, even after Governor Murray MacLehose’s decision to uphold Tsoi Kwok-cheung’s death sentence was overruled by the British government in 1973. MacLehose thereafter played a central role in negotiating the Hong Kong Executive Council’s support for reprieves and eventually oversaw de facto abolition, as he strived to prevent capital punishment compromising his administration’s reform agenda. MacLehose also set a precedent for future governors by opposing reforms to the death penalty in other British Dependent Territories, which he feared would draw unwanted attention to Hong Kong’s anomalous position.
The early phases of severe mental disorders are often diagnostically challenging, with frequent diagnostic shifts over time. Few studies have combined detailed baseline diagnostic assessment with long-term follow-up to examine both diagnostic and social development.
Methods
We conducted a 20-year register-based follow-up of 150 patients with first-time psychiatric hospitalizations. At baseline, all participants underwent a comprehensive diagnostic assessment. Follow-up data were obtained through linkage to national registers, providing information on psychiatric diagnoses, education, family formation, crime, mortality, and suicide. Cumulative incidence functions accounting for competing risks were calculated stratified on baseline diagnoses.
Results
Only seven participants (4.6%) had no further contact with hospital-based psychiatry during the 20-year follow-up. During the follow-up period, 37.9% received a diagnosis of schizophrenia, 35% schizotypy, 14.4% depression, 24.6% personality disorder, 11% bipolar disorder, and 6.1% substance use disorder. Participants with a baseline diagnosis of schizophrenia, schizotypy, or depression had a significantly higher probability of receiving the same diagnosis during follow-up (schizophrenia 81.6%, schizotypy 69.4%, and depression 53.3%), whereas this was not the case for participants with a baseline diagnosis of personality disorder. Mortality was elevated (5.9%), with suicide accounting for one-third of all deaths, ten times the national average.
Conclusions
A first psychiatric hospitalization in early adulthood marked the beginning of a longer clinical trajectory: 95% of participants re-entered hospital-based care or had prolonged initial hospitalization. The findings emphasize the importance of diagnostic assessment and sustained care to improve prognosis and reduce social impairment and premature death.
The impacts of poverty and material scarcity on human decision making appear paradoxical. One set of findings associates poverty with risk aversion, whilst another set associates it with risk taking. We present an idealised rational-choice model, the Desperation Threshold Model (DTM), that explains how both these accounts can be correct. The DTM assumes that there are basic needs whose satisfaction is not fully divisible. This generates an S-shaped utility function for material resources. The value of gaining a dollar is at first small (because even with the extra dollar, basic needs still cannot be met); then large (because the extra dollar enables basic needs to be met); and then small again. Just above the basic needs threshold, people’s main concern is not falling below, and they are predicted to avoid risk especially strongly. Below the threshold, their most important concern is jumping above, and they are predicted to take risks that would otherwise be avoided. Versions of the DTM have been proposed under various names across biology, anthropology, economics and psychology. We review a broad range of relevant empirical evidence from a variety of societal contexts. Though the model primarily concerns individual decision making, it connects to a range of population-scale and societal issues such as: the consequences of economic inequality; the deterrence of crime; and the optimal design and behavioural consequences of the welfare state. We discuss interpretative issues, and suggest areas for future DTM research that bridges disciplines.
Chapter 3 shows that although urban denizens increasingly sought to prevent loss, possessions still went missing on London’s streets. In response, Londoners established and developed systems of reclamation. Institutions such as the Goldsmiths’ Company and the Bank of England were important in developing systems for dealing with lost plate and bank notes. However, alongside these systems, in the late seventeenth and eighteenth century, the capital’s residents also benefited from the great age of print culture. Londoners printed handbills and had them pasted up around the city, but a big change took place with the onset of newspaper publications. Newspapers such as the London Gazette and daily newspapers such as the Daily Courant included advertisements for lost watches, strayed dogs and servants who had runaway. As the chapter shows, the efficacy of such notices was at times bolstered by thief-takers, but as the century rolled on, the advertisement themselves became more popular. The chapter shows how urban denizens often sought to simply reclaim their possessions rather than pursuing the prosecution of the thieves who so often ‘found’ them.
The manageability of the technical obstacles set out in Chapter 4 established, this chapter turns to the adaptive challenges amalgamation faces – most notably its inconceivability to the judiciary. The chapter details the maladaptive constraints that underlie the constitutional drafters’ and legal establishment’s resistance to embracing vernacular law as part of South Africa’s ‘law of general application’ or ‘common law’, as well as the urgency of overcoming such resistance. Depicting the severe decline in institutional trust and rising support for undemocratic governance amidst the public’s waning hopes of material security, the chapter argues that, to strengthen South Africa’s rule of law, constitutionalism must be founded on the vernacular legal traditions that resonate with everyday South Africans, who often feel alienated by a legal system rooted in ‘uncommon’ law. Alter-Native Constitutionalism offers a sustainable path to transformation that would counteract public disillusionment with a constitutionalism that embraces rigid colonial precedents and simultaneously restore trust in the judiciary as the last line of defence. The chapter therefore argues for judicial praxis that re-envisions courts as mediators supporting collective agency, rather than mere adjudicators, thus fostering a relational approach aligning with Ubu-Ntu and honoring the country’s diverse normative traditions and social justice aspirations.
To explore what it meant to own and possess in the eighteenth century, Keeping Hold looks to instances in which people lost possessions and how they responded to such experiences. Chapter 2 begins the book’s focus on loss and does so by looking to urban sites. It looks to the city of the eighteenth century: London. The capital was of growing importance in this period as an economic powerhouse and social hub. Guidebooks emerged as an important genre for those seeking to comprehend London’s densely filled and ever-lengthening streets. The chapter explores these sources and finds how the capital was increasingly imagined as a site of deception and loss, where possessions might be pickpocketed or simply left in the bustle and in which servants and apprentices regularly ran away. The chapter examines how eighteenth-century Londoners responded to such perceived threats by utilising technologies of security, such as pockets and collars. By doing so they worked to prevent loss.