This article examines how formal civil society organizations (CSOs) perceive and engage with informal actors in crisis management and investigates the relational dynamics that bind diverse actors in polycentric governance systems. Adopting a qualitative interpretivist epistemology, the study proceeds from the premise that social realities, including organizational relationships, legitimacy, and trust, are constructed through meaning-making and intersubjective understanding. Drawing on interviews, focus groups, and case studies with 53 CSOs across multiple European countries, the study employs a modified grounded theory approach, consistent with interpretivist traditions that prioritize contextual understanding over objective measurement. The findings reveal a clear divide among formal CSOs. One half dismissed informal actors as untrained risks requiring hierarchical control, reflecting a command-and-control orientation. The other half demonstrated a polycentric orientation, recognizing and legitimizing informal actors without attempting to absorb them. Where polycentric attitudes prevailed, relationships were characterized by four elements: trust built through recognition rather than hierarchy, flexibility in distinguishing specialized from transferable tasks, equality emerging through co-production, and temporality leveraged as a resource for adaptive, short-term cooperation. The article contributes to understanding the relational dynamics within polycentric crisis governance by specifying how these four elements are enacted in practice. In doing so, it helps operationalize polycentricity for crisis management, a contribution called for in the literature. From an interpretivist standpoint, these findings do not claim generalizable causality but instead offer a theoretically grounded understanding of how actors themselves make sense of, negotiate, and co-construct effective cooperation across organizational boundaries.

This article examines how generative AI (GenAI) is reshaping strategic crisis decision-making through the emergence of ‘synthetic foresight’ – the algorithmic simulation of adversary intentions, escalation pathways, and imagined futures under conditions of uncertainty. Unlike traditional practices such as early warning, scenario planning, wargaming, or red teaming, which discipline strategic imagination through structured engagement with uncertainty, GenAI functions as a synthetic cognitive and strategic actor, shaping how leaders anticipate, interpret, and respond to crises in real time. While the implications of GenAI span multiple domains, this study focuses on nuclear crises as the most acute and consequential test of these dynamics. The article identifies three interrelated risks: the normalisation of low-probability escalation pathways, the misattribution of adversarial intent cloaked in algorithmic certainty, and the emergence of synthetic feedback loops that can transform foresight into a driver of escalation. Together, these dynamics may generate self-fulfilling escalatory prophecies, undermining crisis stability as simulated futures begin to shape the behaviours they were intended to anticipate or prevent. The article theorises synthetic foresight as a distinct epistemic force – not merely a predictive aid, but a transformative influence on how strategic futures are imagined, interpreted, and acted upon.

This study examines how entrepreneurs balance between short-term operational continuity and long-term development amid a polycrisis comprising economic volatility, geopolitical disruption, and regulatory instability. Using survey data from 150 entrepreneurs and four case studies, it develops the Integrated Entrepreneurial Resilience and Growth model, which theorizes resilience through three interlinked mechanisms: improvizational action, institutional workarounds, and strategic reconfiguration. Findings reveal that entrepreneurs employ dual temporal strategies, improvising for immediate survival while planning for future growth. Additionally, ecosystem engagement with accelerators, mentors, and investors enhances resilience by providing resources, knowledge, and legitimacy. The study advances a dynamic and embedded understanding of resilience by linking internal adaptive capacities with external institutional support. It bridges dynamic capabilities and entrepreneurial ecosystem perspectives to explain how entrepreneurs navigate overlapping crises. The study presents a novel framework for resilience under continuous structural disruptions, offering insights for policymakers and program designers seeking to support entrepreneurship in volatile contexts.

Allied states often seek to discourage other members from engaging in unnecessary conflicts, frequently working to mitigate and de-escalate tensions during crises involving their partners. This study investigates the de-escalatory influence of alliances − referred to as the restraint effect − on state behaviour during international crises. The central question addressed is: under what conditions does the restraint effect of alliances become more pronounced? The study hypothesizes that relatively weak states allied with major powers are more likely to experience a stronger restraint effect compared to others. This hypothesis is empirically tested using multiple regression models. The findings provide evidence of an additional restraint effect associated with the presence of a major ally within defence pacts. Furthermore, the temporal analysis reveals that this effect is particularly evident during the Cold War era.

The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 significantly impacted Australia’s resources sector, particularly mining, oil, and gas industries, posing challenges for operational leaders. This study applied Adaptive Crisis Management Theory (ACMT) to understand how these leaders adapted during the crisis. Through interviews with 32 operational leaders, it was found that their roles evolved as crisis demands changed. Initially, they addressed immediate needs, then shifted focus to remote work facilitation and digital transformation, and finally emphasised recovery, trust, and resilience. These adaptations influenced leaders’ behaviours, highlighting the importance of flexibility in supporting employee wellbeing and organisational continuity during crises.

Over the last fifteen years, the European Union has built up its regulatory response to the rule of law crisis. That framework seeks to address rule of law-related undesirable events depending on whether or not they have already occurred. As risk prevention has a limited role in the EU’s rule of law policy, undesirable events are mostly dealt with in the context of crisis management. Evaluation, reaction and conditionality mechanisms are all affected by issues relating to operability and legitimacy which reduce their overall performance. The resulting moderate efficiency of crisis management tools may still be improved by making use of the upgraded rule of law mechanisms in a systemic way.

Although transboundary crises have gained relevance in an increasingly interdependent world, our understanding of the relational dynamics governing these phenomena remains limited. This paper addresses this knowledge gap by identifying common characteristics across interorganizational transboundary crisis networks and drivers of tie formation in successful structures. For this purpose, it applies descriptive Social Network Analysis and Exponential Random Graph Models to an original dataset of three networks. Results show that these structures combine elements of issue networks and policy communities. Common features include moderately high centralization, reciprocated ties, core-periphery structures, and the popularity of international organizations. Additionally, successful networks display smooth communication between NGOs and international organizations, whereas unsuccessful networks have fewer heterophilous interactions. Transitivity seems to play a role in network success too. These findings suggest that crisis networks are robust structures that reconcile bridging and bonding dynamics, thereby highlighting how evidence from relational studies could guide transboundary crisis management.