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Statistical Performance of the GOES-Based Flare Anticipation Index for Flare Nowcasting: Preliminary results
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- Journal:
- Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union / Volume 21 / Issue S400 / October 2025
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 02 October 2026, pp. 85-91
- Print publication:
- October 2025
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- Article
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We assess the Flare Anticipation Index (FAI), a GOES-based thermal precursor to flare onset, on a representative multi-cycle sample. Using 200 evenly spaced days between 1980–2025, we compute temperature and emission measure from GOES/XRS and generate alerts based on a specific FAI parameter setting, then associate alerts with GOES events within a 30-min window following. Across 1,137 flares, 84.5% show
$\geq$1 prior FAI alert; the detection fraction rises with class (C/M/X) and is weaker for A/B events. Viewed from the alert side, of 16,161 total FAI alerts, 42.8% are associated with a flare, while 57.2% remain unassociated (candidates for false positives). A case study (M2.1, 2024-02-05) shows 
$\sim29$ min lead time. Flux-EM correlations at peak support the thermal-buildup interpretation. These preliminary results indicate that the FAI is sensitive to medium/large flares and potentially useful for real-time nowcasting, while highlighting limitations for weak events and the need to reduce false positives through thresholding and window optimization.
