In insurance underwriting, applicants may deliberately misrepresent certain risk factors to secure lower premiums. However, from the insurer’s perspective, verifying the true status of these risk factors is both time-consuming and resource-intensive. To address this challenge, we propose a novel deep learning framework for claim severity modeling that explicitly accounts for potential misrepresentation of a binary risk factor. To mitigate the identifiability issues arising from the unobservable nature of misrepresentation in neural networks, we introduce a regularization term based on Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence. This term serves as a conservative anchor by penalizing deviations from a baseline assumption of honesty, unless such deviations are strongly supported by empirical evidence. Additionally, we introduce an innovative regularization term, the $L_1$ group minimax concave penalty ($L_1$-gMCP), within the neural network’s loss function. This term facilitates effective variable selection in high-dimensional settings. Through comprehensive simulation studies, we demonstrate that our method maintains robust performance regardless of whether misrepresentation is present in the data. The proposed model excels in both prediction accuracy and the identification of relevant risk factors. We further validate our approach using real-world data from the 2014 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, treating reported insurance status as a potentially misrepresented variable.

This article proposes a mixed-effects machine-learning framework for modeling complex, nonlinear relations between predictors and continuous outcomes in multilevel cross-classified data. The proposed method, termed LMM–XGBoost, embeds extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) within a linear mixed model (LMM) to combine flexible modeling of nonlinear and interaction effects with random effects that model dependence. In addition, an iterative estimation procedure for LMM–XGBoost is developed, a group-aware permutation importance measure that respects multilevel dependence is proposed, and a combined-group cross-validation (CV) strategy for hyperparameter tuning, out-of-fold (OOF) prediction, and importance estimation is developed for cross-classified designs. The simulation study shows that the proposed estimation method for LMM–XGBoost yields good parameter recovery under non-zero random-effect variances. In addition, relative to standard LMM and XGBoost, LMM–XGBoost achieves lower OOF prediction error and more accurate recovery of variable importance. The study further shows that combined-group CV and group-aware permutation importance yield less biased error estimates and substantially higher agreement with the true importance rankings than conventional permutation measures. An empirical application using the Add Health study illustrates how the proposed methods can identify important factors across multiple domains associated with adolescent depressive symptoms.

Process data, in particular, log data collected from a computerized test, documents the sequence of actions performed by an examinee in pursuit of solving a problem, affording an opportunity to understand test-taking behavioral patterns that account for demographic group differences in key outcomes of interest, for instance, final score on a cognitive item. Addressing this aim, this article proposes a latent class mediation analysis procedure. Using continuous process features extracted from action sequence data as indicators, latent classes underlying the test-taking behavior are identified in a latent class mediation model, where an examinee’s nominal latent class membership enters as the mediator between the observed grouping and outcome variables. A headlong search algorithm for selecting the subset of process features that maximizes the total indirect effect of the latent class mediator is implemented. The proposed procedure is validated with a series of simulations. An application to a large-scale assessment highlights how the proposed method can be used to explain performance gaps between students with learning disability and their typically developing peers on the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) math assessment.

Cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs) are an important psychometric framework for classifying students in terms of attribute and/or skill mastery. The \documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$$\varvec{Q}$$\end{document} matrix, which specifies the required attributes for each item, is central to implementing CDMs. The general unavailability of \documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$$\varvec{Q}$$\end{document} for most content areas and datasets poses a barrier to widespread applications of CDMs, and recent research accordingly developed fully exploratory methods to estimate Q. However, current methods do not always offer clear interpretations of the uncovered skills and existing exploratory methods do not use expert knowledge to estimate Q. We consider Bayesian estimation of \documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$$\varvec{Q}$$\end{document} using a prior based upon expert knowledge using a fully Bayesian formulation for a general diagnostic model. The developed method can be used to validate which of the underlying attributes are predicted by experts and to identify residual attributes that remain unexplained by expert knowledge. We report Monte Carlo evidence about the accuracy of selecting active expert-predictors and present an application using Tatsuoka’s fraction-subtraction dataset.

One of the most vexing problems in cluster analysis is the selection and/or weighting of variables in order to include those that truly define cluster structure, while eliminating those that might mask such structure. This paper presents a variable-selection heuristic for nonhierarchical (K-means) cluster analysis based on the adjusted Rand index for measuring cluster recovery. The heuristic was subjected to Monte Carlo testing across more than 2200 datasets with known cluster structure. The results indicate the heuristic is extremely effective at eliminating masking variables. A cluster analysis of real-world financial services data revealed that using the variable-selection heuristic prior to the K-means algorithm resulted in greater cluster stability.

The selection of a subset of variables from a pool of candidates is an important problem in several areas of multivariate statistics. Within the context of principal component analysis (PCA), a number of authors have argued that subset selection is crucial for identifying those variables that are required for correct interpretation of the components. In this paper, we adapt the variable neighborhood search (VNS) paradigm to develop two heuristics for variable selection in PCA. The performances of these heuristics were compared to those obtained by a branch-and-bound algorithm, as well as forward stepwise, backward stepwise, and tabu search heuristics. In the first experiment, which considered candidate pools of 18 to 30 variables, the VNS heuristics matched the optimal subset obtained by the branch-and-bound algorithm more frequently than their competitors. In the second experiment, which considered candidate pools of 54 to 90 variables, the VNS heuristics provided better solutions than their competitors for a large percentage of the test problems. An application to a real-world data set is provided to demonstrate the importance of variable selection in the context of PCA.

Eight different variable selection techniques for model-based and non-model-based clustering are evaluated across a wide range of cluster structures. It is shown that several methods have difficulties when non-informative variables (i.e., random noise) are included in the model. Furthermore, the distribution of the random noise greatly impacts the performance of nearly all of the variable selection procedures. Overall, a variable selection technique based on a variance-to-range weighting procedure coupled with the largest decreases in within-cluster sums of squares error performed the best. On the other hand, variable selection methods used in conjunction with finite mixture models performed the worst.

We propose a two-way Bayesian vector spatial procedure incorporating dimension reparameterization with a variable selection option to determine the dimensionality and simultaneously identify the significant covariates that help interpret the derived dimensions in the joint space map. We discuss how we solve identifiability problems in a Bayesian context that are associated with the two-way vector spatial model, and demonstrate through a simulation study how our proposed model outperforms a popular benchmark model. In addition, an empirical application dealing with consumers’ ratings of large sport utility vehicles is presented to illustrate the proposed methodology. We are able to obtain interpretable and managerially insightful results from our proposed model with variable selection in comparison with the benchmark model.

In the current paper, we review existing tools for solving variable selection problems in psychology. Modern regularization methods such as lasso regression have recently been introduced in the field and are incorporated into popular methodologies, such as network analysis. However, several recognized limitations of lasso regularization may limit its suitability for psychological research. In this paper, we compare the properties of lasso approaches used for variable selection to Bayesian variable selection approaches. In particular we highlight advantages of stochastic search variable selection (SSVS), that make it well suited for variable selection applications in psychology. We demonstrate these advantages and contrast SSVS with lasso type penalization in an application to predict depression symptoms in a large sample and an accompanying simulation study. We investigate the effects of sample size, effect size, and patterns of correlation among predictors on rates of correct and false inclusion and bias in the estimates. SSVS as investigated here is reasonably computationally efficient and powerful to detect moderate effects in small sample sizes (or small effects in moderate sample sizes), while protecting against false inclusion and without over-penalizing true effects. We recommend SSVS as a flexible framework that is well-suited for the field, discuss limitations, and suggest directions for future development.

When some of observed variates do not conform to the model under consideration, they will have a serious effect on the results of statistical analysis. In factor analysis the model with inconsistent variates may result in improper solutions. In this article a useful method for identifying a variate as inconsistent is proposed in factor analysis. The procedure is based on the likelihood principle. Several statistical properties such as the effect of misspecified hypotheses, the problem of multiple comparisons, and robustness to violation of distributional assumptions are investigated. The procedure is illustrated by some examples.

We present a model of political networks that integrates both the choice of trade partners (the extensive margin) and trade volumes (the intensive margin). Our model predicts that regimes secure in their survival, including democracies as well as some consolidated authoritarian regimes, will trade more on the extensive margin than vulnerable autocracies, which will block trade in products that would expand interpersonal contact among their citizens. We apply a two-stage Bayesian LASSO estimator to detailed measures of institutional features and highly disaggregated product-level trade data encompassing 131 countries over a half century. Consistent with our model, we find that (a) political institutions matter for the extensive margin of trade but not for the intensive margin and (b) the effects of political institutions on the extensive margin of trade vary across products, falling most heavily on those goods that involve extensive interpersonal contact.