Contemporary Intelligence Warning Cases: Learning from Successes and Failures

Contemporary Intelligence Warning Cases presents lessons learned and recommendations for producers and users of intelligence warning in their joint venture to anticipate, prepare for, mitigate, and prevent future threats to national security.

It presents and synthesizes the findings of 16 contemporary intelligence warning case studies undertaken by leading intelligence scholars and former intelligence practitioners. It is the first multi-case study of intelligence warning and adopts a uniquely broad and contemporary approach to the phenomenon, featuring both successful and failed cases. Consistent with the increasing complexity of intelligence problems and scope of intelligence services, it ranges from traditional warning problems such as invasions and wars, through terrorist attacks, to threats that lie beyond the traditional core scope of intelligence services such as pandemics, financial crises, climate change, strategic acquisitions and attacks on cultural heritage.

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Contents

Frontmatter
pp i-iv
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Contents
pp v-vi
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List of Contributors
pp vii-xiv
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Abbreviations
pp xv-xviii
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Introduction: Warning – The Highest Purpose (and Most Challenging Mission) of Intelligence
pp 1-16
- By Bjørn Elias Mikalsen Grønning, Stig Stenslie
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1 - Punggye-ri, 2006 – North Korea’s First Nuclear Test
pp 17-32
- By Soo Kim
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2 - London, 2006 – The al-Qaeda Transatlantic Bomb Plot
pp 33-47
- By Michael S. Goodman
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3 - Tbilisi, 2008 – Russia Invades Georgia
pp 48-65
- By Daniela Richterova
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4 - Wall Street, 2008 – The Global Financial Crisis
pp 66-81
- By John A. Gentry
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5 - In Amenas, 2013 – Terrorists Attack Petroleum Interests
pp 82-96
- By Bjørn Elias Mikalsen Grønning
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6 - Crimea, 2014 – Russia’s Annexation of Crimea
pp 97-111
- By Tom Røseth, Tobias Sæther
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7 - Mosul, 2014 – The Rise of ISIS
pp 112-129
- By Nikki Ikani
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8 - Palmyra, 2015 – ISIS Attacks Cultural Heritage Sites
pp 130-146
- By Zeynep Egeli, Lars Haugom
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9 - Paris, 2015 – ISIS Attacks Paris
pp 147-167
- By Pauline Blistène
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10 - Kyiv, 2015 – Russia’s Cyber-attack on Ukraine’s Power Grid
pp 168-183
- By Aaron Brantly
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11 - Wuhan, 2019 – A Global Pandemic
pp 184-203
- By Damien Van Puyvelde
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12 - Capitol Hill, 2021 – Insurrection in Washington DC
pp 204-218
- By Stephen Coulthart
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13 - Bergen, 2021 – Russia’s Strategic Acquisition Bid for Bergen Engines AS
pp 219-235
- By Bjørn Elias Mikalsen Grønning
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14 - Kabul, 2021 – The Taliban Overtakes Kabul
pp 236-258
- By Kristian Gustafson
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15 - Kyiv, 2022 – Russia’s Full-scale Invasion of Ukraine
pp 259-277
- By Huw Dylan
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16 - Sindh, 2022 – Climate Change Floods in Pakistan
pp 278-294
- By Stig Stenslie
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Conclusion: Towards Better Warning – Lessons and Recommendations for Intelligence
pp 295-299
- By Bjørn Elias Mikalsen Grønning, Stig Stenslie
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References
pp 300-344
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Index
pp 345-356
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Contemporary Intelligence Warning Cases

Learning from Successes and Failures

Book description

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Contents

Frontmatter
pp i-iv

Contents
pp v-vi

List of Contributors
pp vii-xiv

Abbreviations
pp xv-xviii

Introduction: Warning – The Highest Purpose (and Most Challenging Mission) of Intelligence
pp 1-16

1 - Punggye-ri, 2006 – North Korea’s First Nuclear Test
pp 17-32

2 - London, 2006 – The al-Qaeda Transatlantic Bomb Plot
pp 33-47

3 - Tbilisi, 2008 – Russia Invades Georgia
pp 48-65

4 - Wall Street, 2008 – The Global Financial Crisis
pp 66-81

5 - In Amenas, 2013 – Terrorists Attack Petroleum Interests
pp 82-96

6 - Crimea, 2014 – Russia’s Annexation of Crimea
pp 97-111

7 - Mosul, 2014 – The Rise of ISIS
pp 112-129

8 - Palmyra, 2015 – ISIS Attacks Cultural Heritage Sites
pp 130-146

9 - Paris, 2015 – ISIS Attacks Paris
pp 147-167

10 - Kyiv, 2015 – Russia’s Cyber-attack on Ukraine’s Power Grid
pp 168-183

11 - Wuhan, 2019 – A Global Pandemic
pp 184-203

12 - Capitol Hill, 2021 – Insurrection in Washington DC
pp 204-218

13 - Bergen, 2021 – Russia’s Strategic Acquisition Bid for Bergen Engines AS
pp 219-235

14 - Kabul, 2021 – The Taliban Overtakes Kabul
pp 236-258

15 - Kyiv, 2022 – Russia’s Full-scale Invasion of Ukraine
pp 259-277

16 - Sindh, 2022 – Climate Change Floods in Pakistan
pp 278-294

Conclusion: Towards Better Warning – Lessons and Recommendations for Intelligence
pp 295-299

References
pp 300-344

Index
pp 345-356

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Contemporary Intelligence Warning Cases

Learning from Successes and Failures

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