Intelligence services’ collection and processing capabilities are ever-improving. Over the past two decades, drones, satellites and other technical sensors have become less expensive and more capable. Intelligence targets are becoming more accessible in the digital domain. Commercial entities collect big data and offer their services to those willing to pay, and sophisticated technology, such as ‘artificial intelligence’, supports the processing and dissemination of intelligence. The only exception, perhaps, is human intelligence, particularly in hard-target countries, due to the challenges biometrical surveillance and our everyday digital footprints mount against the clandestine operator.

At the same time, contextual developments arguably largely offset the effects of improving collection capabilities. The international threat environment is growing increasingly complex and erratic, broadening the intelligence services’ mission portfolios. International and domestic polarisation implies that intelligence is increasingly subject to politicisation. On the one hand, the increasing information availability challenges intelligence analysis; on the other hand, it implies that now, more than ever, intelligence must compete with other sources to inform decision-makers.

This book focuses solely on the early twenty-first century and does not lend itself to claims that these developments have strengthened or weakened intelligence warning track records. However, the book demonstrates one indisputable fact: Warning failure remains a prominent feature of intelligence in the contemporary context. This fact was clearly underlined while we were wrapping up this book project. On 7 October 2023, Hamas operatives based primarily in Gaza launched a large, coordinated attack across the Israeli border.