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One of the main governance decisions that policymakers need to make is whether to implement public services via centralized or decentralized forms. As Costa et al. discuss in their article, when public services are implemented via competing systems, service providers contend to provide good services with the ultimate objective of gaining market quota. This is known as managed competition (MC), as the authorities will have to manage the panoply of public and private organizations offering the service. The alternative is to manage the service more centrally, in what it is identified as vertical integration. As the authors describe, several governments around the globe have abandoned their vertical integrated models in favour of decentralized models. This is the case, as the authors recall, for most health services in Europe. While there is an emerging body of evidence suggesting that decentralized MC outperforms vertically integrated models both in terms of efficiency and in terms of service quality, little is known on how these systems react under different circumstances. This means, for example, how these systems can cope with a sudden increase in their service demands.
Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, discussions about the capabilities of health and social systems to control and contain infectious diseases have been reignited. In Resilient Managed Competition During Pandemics: Lessons from the Italian Experience, Costa-Font, Turatti and Levaggi ask whether or not institutional differences between the managed competition (MC) systems in three of Italy's regions may have affected their performance – and hence, population health outcomes – during the pandemic. Fuchs (2000) previously argued that institutional arrangements not only ‘matter’, but also sometimes ‘matter a great deal’ (p. 149, emphasis in original) and this may be particularly true in emergencies.
In response to the Ebola outbreak of 2014–2016, the US Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR) established 10 regional treatment centers, called biocontainment units (BCUs), to prepare and provide care for patients infected with high-consequence pathogens. Many of these BCUs were among the first units to activate for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patient care. The activities of the Johns Hopkins BCU helped prepare the Johns Hopkins Health System for COVID-19 in the 3 domains of containment care: (1) preparedness planning, education and training, (2) patient care and unit operations, and (3) research and innovation. Here, we describe the role of the JH BCU in the Hopkins COVID-19 response to illustrate the value of BCUs in the current pandemic and their potential role in preparing healthcare facilities and health systems for future infectious disease threats.
We reviewed stroke care delivery during the COVID-19 pandemic at our stroke center and provincial telestroke system. We counted referrals to our prevention clinic, code strokes, thrombolysis, endovascular thrombectomies, and activations of a provincial telestroke system from February to April of 2017–2020. In April 2020, there was 28% reduction in prevention clinic referrals, 32% reduction in code strokes, and 26% reduction in telestroke activations compared to prior years. Thrombolysis and endovascular thrombectomy rates remained constant. Fewer patients received stroke services across the spectrum from prevention, acute care to telestroke care in Ontario, Canada, during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Two articles on the potential impact of the current coronavirus pandemic on psychiatry reveal agreement on many points, but opposing positions on the methodology, philosophy and politics of psychiatry's response. This points to the need for psychiatry to audit its approach to evidence when agility is required.
Health factors such as diabetes, severe obesity and chronic kidney disease are all associated with a more severe outcome following coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection. However, there has been little exploration into the impact of mental and behavioural disorders on outcomes associated with COVID-19. We investigated outcomes for older people who used mental health services. Those who had a COVID-19-associated death had previously rated worse across a range of health and social problems, including mental health related problems. Our findings evidence the need to urgently explore whether mental and behavioural disorders should also be considered a health risk factor for a more severe outcome from COVID-19 infection in older people.
We aimed to describe the clinical features in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases. We studied 134 critically ill COVID-19 cases from 30 December 2019 to 20 February 2020 in an intensive care unit (ICU) at Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital. Demographics, underlying diseases, therapy strategies and test results were collected and analysed from patients on admission, admission to the ICU and 48 h before death. The non-survivors were older (65.46 (s.d. 9.74) vs. 46.45 (s.d. 11.09)) and were more likely to have underlying diseases. The blood group distribution of the COVID-19 cases differed from that of the Han population in Wuhan, with type A being 43.85%; type B, 26.92%; type AB, 10% and type O, 19.23%. Non-survivors tend to develop more severe lymphopaenia, with higher C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, procalcitonin, D-dimer levels and gradually increased with time. The clinical manifestations were non-specific. Compared with survivors, non-survivors more likely to have organ function injury, and to receive mechanical ventilation, either invasively or noninvasively. Multiple organ failure and secondary bacterial infection in the later period is worthy of attention.
This article analyses the administrative measures and, more specifically, the administrative strategy implemented in the immediacy of the emergency by the Italian government in order to determine whether it was effective in managing the COVID-19 pandemic throughout the country. In analysing the administrative strategy, the article emphasises the role that the current system of constitutional separation of powers plays in emergency management and how this system can impact health risk assessment. An explanation of the risk management system in Italian and European Union (EU) law is provided and the following key legal issues are addressed: (1) the notion and features of emergency risk regulation from a pandemic perspective, distinguishing between risk and emergency; (2) the potential and limits of the precautionary principle in EU law; and (3) the Italian constitutional scenario with respect to the main provisions regulating central government, regional and local powers. Specifically, this article argues that the administrative strategy for effectively implementing emergency risk regulation based on an adequate and correct risk assessment requires “power sharing” across the different levels of government with the participation of all of the institutional actors involved in the decision-making process: Government, Regions and local authorities.
“And the flames of the tripods expired. And Darkness and Decay and the Red Death held illimitable dominion over all”.
Edgar Allan Poe, The Mask of the Red Death, Complete Tales and Poems
The UK is one of the epicenters of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in the world. As of April 14, there have been 93 873 confirmed patients of COVID-19 in the UK and 12 107 deaths with confirmed infection. On April 14, it was reported that COVID-19 was the cause of more than half of the deaths in London.
Methods:
The present paper addresses the modeling and forecasting of the outbreak of COVID-19 in the UK. This modeling must be accomplished through a 2-part time series model to study the number of confirmed cases and deaths. The period we aimed at a forecast was 46 days from April 15 to May 30, 2020. All the computations and simulations were conducted on Matlab R2015b, and the average curves and confidence intervals were calculated based on 100 simulations of the fitted models.
Results:
According to the obtained model, we expect that the cumulative number of confirmed cases will reach 282 000 with an 80% confidence interval (242 000 to 316 500) on May 30, from 93 873 on April 14. In addition, it is expected that, over this period, the number of daily new confirmed cases will fall to the interval 1330 to 6450 with the probability of 0.80 by the point estimation around 3100. Regarding death, our model establishes that the real case fatality rate of the pandemic in the UK approaches 11% (80% confidence interval: 8%–15%). Accordingly, we forecast that the total death in the UK will rise to 35 000 (28 000–50 000 with the probability of 80%).
Conclusions:
The drawback of this study is the shortage of observations. Also, to conduct a more exact study, it is possible to take the number of the tests into account as an explanatory variable besides time.
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to predictions of a widespread mental health crisis. However, this makes little sense when fear and anxiety are so understandable in context. The individualisation and medicalisation of normal human reactions disconnects us from our feelings and from the appropriate solutions, in relation to the pandemic and more generally. We have an opportunity to challenge this pervasive way of thinking, and thus be in a position to create a fairer society that is better for everyone's emotional well-being.
Since the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2, identified in December 2019, in Wuhan in China, the number of cases rapidly increased into a pandemic. Governments worldwide have adopted different strategies and measures to interrupt the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The main objective was to report and evaluate the effectiveness of the adopted measures in North Africa countries.
Methods:
In these countries, the effective reproductive number R(t), the naïve case fatality rate, and the adjusted case fatality rate were estimated and compared on different dates.
Results:
The obtained results show that the early strict application of containment measures and confinement could help contain the spread of the epidemic and maintain the number of deaths low.
Conclusions:
These measures might be useful for other countries that are experiencing the start of local COVID-19 outbreaks. They could also serve to halt the spread of new epidemics or pandemics.
Some authors have suggested that the emergence of the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, and the subsequent pandemic has meant that the constructs of pathological anxiety and depression are meaningless owing to widespread anxiety and depressive symptoms. This paper examines what is required to make a diagnosis of a depressive or anxiety disorder and how this may differ from fleeting symptomatology in response to specific situations or stimuli. All people experience the emotions of both anxiety and depression, but far fewer have a persistent anxiety or depressive syndrome which interferes with their quality of life and functioning. The pandemic and its issues are then discussed, and existing studies examining the reactions of people living through the pandemic are presented. Finally, the paper examines possible ways to cope at times of increased stress and how we can try to protect ourselves from long-term mental health sequelae of chronic stress.
In March 2020, the Louisiana Department of Health activated the Medical Monitoring Station (MMS) in downtown New Orleans. This alternative care site is designed to decompress hospitals and nursing homes overwhelmed by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Given the city’s historic vulnerability to hurricanes, planning for possible tropical weather events has been a priority for MMS leadership.
Methods:
The planning process incorporated input from all sectors/agencies working at the facility, to ensure consistency and cohesion. The MMS Shelter-in-Place Plan (MSIPP) was created, and a comprehensive tabletop exercise was conducted.
Results:
Six planning topics emerged as a result of the planning process and were used to create a comprehensive plan for sheltering-in-place. These topics address hurricane preparedness for patient care, interfacility coordination, wrap-around services, medical logistics, essential staffing, and incident command during a shelter-in-place scenario.
Conclusions:
The MSIPP created by the MMS helped to maximize patient safety and continuity of operations during a real-world event. Select pieces of the plan were activated to meet the needs and threat level of Tropical Storm Cristobal. This experience reinforced the need for originality, scalability, and flexibility in building emergency operations plans in the midst of an unprecedented pandemic.
Citizens’ concerns about data privacy and data security breaches may reduce the adoption of COVID-19 contact tracing mobile phone applications, making them less effective. We implement a choice experiment (conjoint experiment) where participants indicate which version of two contact tracing apps they would install, varying the apps’ privacy-preserving attributes. Citizens do not always prioritise privacy and prefer a centralised National Health Service system over a decentralised system. In a further study asking about participants’ preference for digital-only vs human-only contact tracing, we find a mixture of digital and human contact tracing is supported. We randomly allocated a subset of participants in each study to receive a stimulus priming data breach as a concern, before asking about contact tracing. The salient threat of unauthorised access or data theft does not significantly alter preferences in either study. We suggest COVID-19 and trust in a national public health service system mitigate respondents’ concerns about privacy.
Corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), was first detected in the city of Wuhan, China in December 2019. Although, the disease appeared in Africa later than other regions, it has now spread to virtually all countries on the continent. We provide early spatio-temporal dynamics of COVID-19 within the first 62 days of the disease's appearance on the African continent. We used a two-parameter hurdle Poisson model to simultaneously analyse the zero counts and the frequency of occurrence. We investigate the effects of important healthcare capacities including hospital beds and number of medical doctors in different countries. The results show that cases of the pandemic vary geographically across Africa with notably high incidence in neighbouring countries particularly in West and North Africa. The burden of the disease (per 100 000) mostly impacted Djibouti, Tunisia, Morocco and Algeria. Temporally, during the first 4 weeks, the burden was highest in Senegal, Egypt and Mauritania, but by mid-April it shifted to Somalia, Chad, Guinea, Tanzania, Gabon, Sudan and Zimbabwe. Currently, Namibia, Angola, South Sudan, Burundi and Uganda have the least burden. These findings could be useful in guiding epidemiological interventions and the allocation of scarce resources based on heterogeneity of the disease patterns.
This study estimates the incubation period of COVID-19 among locally transmitted cases, and its association with age to better inform public health measures in containing COVID-19. Epidemiological data of all PCR-confirmed COVID-19 cases from all restructured hospitals in Singapore were collected between 23 January 2020 and 2 April 2020. Activity mapping and detailed epidemiological investigation were conducted by trained personnel. Positive cases without clear exposure to another positive case were excluded from the analysis. One hundred and sixty-four cases (15.6% of patients) met the inclusion criteria during the defined period. The crude median incubation period was 5 days (range 1–12 days) and median age was 42 years (range 5–79 years). The median incubation period among those 70 years and older was significantly longer than those younger than 70 years (8 vis-à-vis 5 days, P = 0.040). Incubation period was negatively correlated with day of illness in both groups. These findings support current policies of 14-day quarantine periods for close contacts of confirmed cases and 28 days for monitoring infections in known clusters. An elderly person who may have a longer incubation period than a younger counterpart may benefit from earlier and proactive testing, especially after exposure to a positive case.
The authors aim to demonstrate that the current drive-through testing model at a health district was improved in certain parameters compared with a previous testing protocol, and to provide the methodology of the current model for other coronavirus disease (COVID-19) testing sites to potentially emulate.
Methods:
Initially, a small drive-through site was constructed at a converted tuberculosis clinic, but due to an increase in testing needs, an expanded point of screening and testing (POST) system was developed in an event center parking lot to administer tests to a higher volume of patients.
Results:
An average of 51.1 patients was tested each day (2.0 tests per personnel in personal protective equipment [PPE] per hour) at the initial tuberculosis clinic drive-through site, which increased to 217.8 patients tested each day (5.9 tests per personnel in PPE per hour) with the new drive-through POST system (P < 0.001). Mean testing time was 3.4 minutes and the total time on-site averaged 14.4 minutes.
Conclusions:
This POST drive-through system serves as an efficient, safe, and adaptable model for high volume COVID-19 nasopharyngeal swabbing that the authors recommend other COVID-19 testing sites nationwide consider adopting for their own use.
How people behave in a crisis depends on their understanding and evaluation of risk and vulnerability. Therefore, this study was conducted to investigate the Iranians’ risk perception of coronavirus disease (COVID-19).
Methods:
An online survey was applied, which resulted in the collection of information on demographics, the 5 dimensions of risk perception (cognitive, political, social, cultural, and emotional), and trust in the government among the Iranian users of social networks. Data were analyzed by descriptive and analytical tests of SPSS (IBM Corp, Armonk, NY) software, and confirmatory factor analysis of Amos software.
Results:
A total of 364 persons from 20 provinces completed the questionnaire during February 25 to March 2, 2020. More than 80% of the participants believed that negligence and lack of close supervision of the authorities have led to the spread of COVID-19. The mean (SD) risk perception was 58.77 (± 10.11), indicating the medium level of risk perception of people. The second-order confirmatory factor analysis also indicated that cultural dimension had the highest positive correlation (0.96), emotional dimension had the highest negative correlation (-0.65), and social dimension had the least correlation with the risk perception model (0.08).
Conclusion:
Iranians’ risk perception of the COVID-19 outbreak is not optimal, and it seems necessary to improve it.
While most research focuses on the clinical treatment of COVID-19, fewer studies have investigated individuals' responses towards this novel infectious disease. This study aims to report the temporal changes in individuals' psychological wellbeing, perceived discrimination, sociopolitical perceptions and information-seeking behaviours among the general public in Hubei, China. Data were obtained from a two-wave survey of 1902 respondents aged 18–80 in Hubei province during the peak and mitigation stages of the outbreak. The results showed that the prevalence of psychological distress dropped from over 75% to around 15% throughout the study period, but perceived discrimination remained stable. Female, middle-aged, well-educated respondents and those employed in government/public institutions/state-owned enterprises tended to report more distress. While respondents' attention on COVID-19 information kept high and stable, their sources of information diversified across different sociodemographic groups. Over time, people obtained more social support from neighbourhoods than from their friends and relatives or non-government organisations. Over 80% of respondents were satisfied with the performance of the central government, which was notably higher than their ratings on the local government and neighbourhood/village committees. The findings of this research are informative for formulating effective intervention strategies to tackle various psychosocial problems during COVID-19.
The role of medical students in the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is rapidly evolving. The aim of this review is to explore the involvement of medical students in past global health emergencies, to help inform current and future scenarios.
Methods:
A rapid systematic review was undertaken, including articles from online databases discussing the roles, willingness and appropriateness of medical student involvement in global health emergencies. Data were extracted, appraised and written up as a narrative synthesis. This study was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020177231).
Results:
Twenty-eight articles were included. Medical students played a wide variety of clinical and nonclinical roles including education and logistics, although medical assistance was the most commonly reported role. Challenges included a lack of preparedness and negative mental health impacts. A total of 91.7% of included articles about willingness found medical students were more willing to be involved than not.
Conclusions:
This review shows medical students are capable and willing to be involved in global health emergencies. However, there should be clear protocols for the roles that they play, taking into account the appropriateness. As a rapid review, there were study limitations and more research is required regarding the impact of these roles on medical students and the system.