In developed countries the majority of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections occur in injecting drug users (IDUs) with prevalence in IDUs often high, but with wide geographical differences within countries. Estimates of local prevalence are needed for planning services for IDUs, but it is not practical to conduct HCV seroprevalence surveys in all areas. In this study survey data from IDUs attending specialist services were collected in 52/149 sites in England between 2006 and 2008. Spatially correlated random-effects models were used to estimate HCV prevalence for all sites, using auxiliary data to aid prediction. Estimates ranged from 14% to 82%, with larger cities, London and the North West having the highest HCV prevalence. The methods used generated robust estimates for each area, with a well-identified spatial pattern that improved predictions. Such models may be of use in other areas of study where surveillance data are sparse.

Diarrhoeal mortality rates in Mexican children dramatically declined during the 1980s and 1990s, concomitant with a temporal shift in peak deaths from summer to autumn–winter. The spatial dynamics of these patterns have not previously been studied. We first describe the seasonal features of paediatric diarrhoeal mortality in Mexico as a whole, then across individual states. While no geographical gradients in the magnitude of diarrhoeal mortality rates have been detected in recent years, we identified a distinct spatial pattern in the timing of peak mortality rate. In the 1980s the summer peak mortality was earliest around Mexico's capital and later in states to the southeast and northwest. Our results suggest that the direction and timing of those annual waves are related to the mean monthly precipitation and mean daily temperature. This pattern has disintegrated in recent years as the summer peak has diminished.

We analysed the data from the control group in a typhoid vaccine trial in Karachi to assess the differences in individual-, household- and cluster-level characteristics for developing typhoid fever. The annual incidence of typhoid in children aged 2–16 years in the control arm of the vaccine trial was 151/100 000 population. After adjustment, the risk of typhoid was lower with increasing age [risk ratio (RR) 0·89, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0·83–0·95], was higher with an increase in population density (RR 1·13, 95% CI 1·05–1·21) and was lower in the households using a safe drinking-water source (RR 0·63, 95% CI 0·41–0·99). Typhoid fever affects younger children living in areas of high population density and lack of access to safe water in Pakistan. A combination of environmental and biological interventions is required to prevent the continued epidemiological and economic impact of typhoid fever in high-risk areas of Pakistan.

Travel in passenger cars is a ubiquitous aspect of the daily activities of many people. During the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic a case of probable transmission during car travel was reported in Australia, to which spread via the airborne route may have contributed. However, there are no data to indicate the likely risks of such events, and how they may vary and be mitigated. To address this knowledge gap, we estimated the risk of airborne influenza transmission in two cars (1989 model and 2005 model) by employing ventilation measurements and a variation of the Wells–Riley model. Results suggested that infection risk can be reduced by not recirculating air; however, estimated risk ranged from 59% to 99·9% for a 90-min trip when air was recirculated in the newer vehicle. These results have implications for interrupting in-car transmission of other illnesses spread by the airborne route.

We elucidated the molecular epidemiology and evolution of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) strains isolated from 1949 to 2009 in China in this study. Three genotypes (I, III, V) were confirmed to be co-circulating in China in both high- and low-prevalence areas. Genotype III consisted of two clades (mainland clade and Taiwan clade). Compared to the mainland clade, genotype I and the Taiwan clade were newly introduced and evolved more rapidly. We also demonstrated that JEV strains in China, especially those in the mainland clade, were not only under purifying selection, but also probably under positive selection (aa 227 and 408 in the envelope protein).

Injecting drug users (IDUs) account for most new HCV infections. The objectives of this study were: to estimate the force of infection for hepatitis C virus in IDUs within the interval-censoring framework and to determine the impact of risk factors such as frequency of injection, drug injected, sharing of syringes and time of first injection on the time to HCV infection. We used data from the Amsterdam Cohort Study collected in The Netherlands and focused on those individuals who were HCV negative upon entry into the study. Based on the results, the force of infection was found to vary with time of first injection. The risk of infection was higher in the first 3 years of an IDU's career, implying estimates based on single cross-sectional studies could be biased. Frequency of injection and type of drug injected were found to be highly significant predictors, whereas sharing syringes was not.

We investigated an unprecedented outbreak of fulminant hepatitis B virus (HBV) that occurred in Modasa, Gujarat (India) in 2009. Genomic analysis of all fulminant hepatic failure cases confirmed exclusive predominance of subgenotype D1. A1762T, G1764A basal core promoter (BCP) mutations, insertion of isoleucine after nt 1843, stop codon mutation G1896A, G1862T transversion plus seven other mutations in the core gene caused inhibition of HBeAg expression implicating them as circulating precore/BCP mutant virus. Two rare mutations at amino acids 89 (Ile→Ala) and 119 (Leu→Ser) in addition to other mutations in the polymerase (pol) gene may have caused some alteration in either of four pol gene domains to affect encapsidation of pregenomic RNA to enhance pathogenicity. Sequence similarity among patients' sequences suggested an involvement of a single hepatitis B mutant strain/source to corroborate the finding of gross and continued usage of HBV mutant-contaminated syringes/needles by a physician which resulted in this unprecedented outbreak of fulminant hepatitis B. The fulminant exacerbation of the disease might be attributed to mutations in the BCP/precore/core and pol genes that may have occurred due to selection pressure during rapid spread/mutation of the virus.

The Health Protection Agency/QSurveillance national surveillance system utilizes QSurveillance® a recently developed general practitioner database covering over 23 million people in the UK. We describe the spread of the first wave of the influenza A(H1N1) pandemic 2009 using data on consultations for influenza-like illness (ILI), respiratory illness and prescribing for influenza from 3400 contributing general practices. Daily data, provided from 27 April 2009 to 28 January 2010, were used to give a timely overview for those managing the pandemic nationally and locally. The first wave particularly affected London and the West Midlands with a peak in ILI in week 30. Children aged between 1 and 15 years had consistently high consultation rates for ILI. Daily ILI rates were used for modelling national weekly case estimates. The system enabled the ‘real-time’ monitoring of the pandemic to a small geographical area, linking morbidity and prescribing for influenza and other respiratory illnesses.

The parasite Echinococcus multilocularis was first detected in The Netherlands in 1996 and repeated studies have shown that the parasite subsequently spread in the local population of foxes in the province of Limburg. It was not possible to quantify the human risk of alveolar echinococcosis because no relationship between the amount of parasite eggs in the environment and the probability of infection in humans was known. Here, we used the spread of the parasite in The Netherlands as a predictor, together with recently published historical records of the epidemiology of alveolar echinococcosis in Switzerland, to achieve a relative quantification of the risk. Based on these analyses, the human risk in Limburg was simulated and up to three human cases are predicted by 2018. We conclude that the epidemiology of alveolar echinococcosis in The Netherlands might have changed from a period of negligible risk in the past to a period of increasing risk in the forthcoming years.

The assemblages of Giardia duodenalis in 25 children with and 25 children without diarrhoea and 24 adults with gastrointestinal symptoms in South India were determined. Polymerase chain reaction–restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR–RFLP) targeting the glutamate dehydrogenase (gdh), β-giardin and triosephosphate isomerase (tpi) genes was used. The tpi PCR was the most sensitive and detected G. duodenalis in all 74 microscopy-positive samples, while gdh and β-giardin PCR were positive in 62·2% and 56·8% of the samples. Assemblage B was predominant in both children and adults (82·4%) followed by assemblage AII (9·4%); assemblage AI was not detected. Infections with both assemblages A and B (detected by tpi PCR–RFLP) were seen exclusively in children and the mixed assemblage BIII and BIV (detected by gdh PCR–RFLP) was more common in children than adults (P=0·058).

A baseline survey on the prevalence of Campylobacter spp. in broiler flocks and Campylobacter spp. on broiler carcases in the UK was performed in 2008 in accordance with Commission Decision 2007/516/EC. Pooled caecal contents from each randomly selected slaughter batch, and neck and breast skin from a single carcase were examined for Campylobacter spp. The prevalence of Campylobacter in the caeca of broiler batches was 75·8% (303/400) compared to 87·3% (349/400) on broiler carcases. Overall, 27·3% of the carcases were found to be highly contaminated with Campylobacter (⩾1000 c.f.u./g). Slaughter in the summer months (June, July, August) [odds ratio (OR) 3·50], previous partial depopulation of the flock (OR 3·37), and an increased mortality at 14 days (⩾1·25% to <1·75%) (OR 2·54) were identified as significant risk factors for the most heavily Campylobacter-contaminated carcases. Four poultry companies and farm location were also found to be significantly associated with highly contaminated carcases.

Diversity within Shigella dysenteriae (n=40) and Shigella boydii (n=30) isolates from children living in Egypt aged <5 years was investigated. Shigella-associated diarrhoea occurred mainly in summer months and in children aged <3 years, it commonly presented with vomiting and fever. Serotypes 7 (30%), 2 (28%), and 3 (23%) accounted for most of S. dysenteriae isolates; 50% of S. boydii isolates were serotype 2. S. dysenteriae and S. boydii isolates were often resistant to ampicillin, chloramphenicol and tetracycline (42%, 17%, respectively), although resistance varied among serotypes. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis separated the isolates into distinct clusters correlating with species and serotype. Genetic differences in trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole and β-lactam-encoding resistance genes were also evident. S. dysenteriae and S. boydii are genetically diverse pathogens in Egypt; the high level of multidrug resistance associated with both pathogens and resistance to the most available inexpensive antibiotics underlines the importance of continuing surveillance.

Pneumonia is an important cause of mortality and morbidity in infants. However, information of risk factors for pneumonia in children aged <6 months is limited. This study aimed to evaluate the risk factors and their contribution to infantile pneumonia in a large population-based survey. Of 24 200 randomly sampled main caregivers invited, 21 248 (87·8%) participated in this study. A structured questionnaire was used to interview the main caregivers. Information regarding whether hospitalization was required, family environment, and medical history were obtained. The prevalence of pneumonia was 0·62% in our study cohort. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that preterm birth, congenital cardiopulmonary disease, antibiotic use during pregnancy, maternal overweight, daily prenatal exposure to environmental tobacco smoke, maternal smoking during pregnancy, and visible mould on walls at home are risk factors associated with infantile pneumonia. Further study is warranted to investigate the causality and mechanisms of these novel factors.

Routine typing of 14 469 isolates from human cryptosporidiosis cases between 2000 and 2008 revealed that 7439 (51·4%) were Cryptosporidium (C.) hominis, 6372 (44·0%) C. parvum, 51 (0·4%) both C. hominis and C. parvum, 443 (3·1%) were not typable and 164 (1·1%) were other Cryptosporidium species or genotypes. Of the latter, 109 were C. meleagridis, 38 C. felis, 11 C. ubiquitum, one C. canis, two horse, two novel and one skunk genotype. C. hominis monkey genotype and C. cuniculus were identified in a separate study. Patients with unusual infections were older than those with C. hominis (P<0·01) or C. parvum (P<0·01) and were more likely to be immunocompromised (Fisher's exact P<0·01). Forty-one percent of unusual cases had travelled abroad, mainly to the Indian subcontinent. Significant risk factors in those with unusual species were travel abroad (C. meleagridis, P<0·01), being immunocompromised (C. felis, Fisher's exact P=0·02), and contact with cats (C. felis, Fisher's exact P=0·02).

The aim of the present study was to assess the recent trends in the epidemiology of non-typhoid Salmonella in Israel using a sentinel laboratory-based surveillance network. Between 1999 and 2009, 8758 Salmonella stool isolates were reported by five sentinel laboratories. There was a significant decrease in the incidence rate of Salmonella isolates from 70·5/100 000 in 1999 to 21·6/100 000 in 2005 followed by a slight increase to 30·3/100 000 in 2009. Of all Salmonella, 64·3% were isolated from children in the 0–4 years age group. Up to 2008, S. Enteritidis was the most prevalent serotype and in 2009 S. Infantis emerged as the most common Salmonella serotype. The decrease in the incidence of S. Enteritidis and S. Typhimurium and increase in S. Infantis among humans were associated with a similar trend among breeding flocks, which followed significant preventive interventions conducted against S. Enteritidis and S. Typhimurium infections in poultry. Tight surveillance and education of food handlers and consumers should be enhanced to reduce the foodborne transmission of Salmonella in Israel.

Streptococcus pyogenes causes a variety of infections because of virulence factors such as capsular hyaluronic acid and M protein. The aim of this study was to determine emm types and capsule phenotype in 110 isolates of S. pyogenes from patients with invasive (sterile sites) and non-invasive (mainly pharyngitis) infections in Chile, and the relationship between both virulence factors. The most abundant types found were emm12, emm1, emm4 and emm28 and their distribution was similar to that seen in Latin America and developed countries, but very different from that in Asia and Pacific Island countries. Ten of 16 emm types identified in pharyngeal isolates were found in sterile-site isolates, and three of nine emm types of sterile-site isolates occurred in pharyngeal isolates; three emm subtypes were novel. The amount of hyaluronic acid was significantly higher in sterile-site isolates but did not differ substantially among emm types. Only three isolates were markedly capsulate and two of them had mutations in the csrR gene that codes for a repressor of capsule synthesis genes. We found a non-random association between emm types and csrR gene alleles suggesting that horizontal gene transfer is not freely occurring in the population.

Case-ascertained household transmission studies, in which households including an ‘index case’ are recruited and followed up, are invaluable to understanding the epidemiology of influenza. We used a simulation approach parameterized with data from household transmission studies to evaluate alternative study designs. We compared studies that relied on self-reported illness in household contacts vs. studies that used home visits to collect swab specimens for virological confirmation of secondary infections, allowing for the trade-off between sample size vs. intensity of follow-up given a fixed budget. For studies estimating the secondary attack proportion, 2–3 follow-up visits with specimens collected from all members regardless of illness were optimal. However, for studies comparing secondary attack proportions between two or more groups, such as controlled intervention studies, designs with reactive home visits following illness reports in contacts were most powerful, while a design with one home visit optimally timed also performed well.

Surveillance of acute hepatitis B in England is necessary to estimate incidence, determine routes of transmission and inform public health actions. Here we describe an automated process to extract information on testing for markers of hepatitis B infection in English sentinel laboratories between 2002 and 2008. The resulting data were used to identify individuals with acute infections, describe their characteristics and estimate the incidence of infection. Two-thirds of acute infections were in males. Heterosexual exposure and injecting drug use were the main risks reported. Annual incidence was estimated at 1·3/100 000 person-years overall (1·7 and 0·6 for males and females, respectively) and declined each year. Automated extraction of hepatitis B markers, including quantitative results where available, can help to classify HBV status more accurately for surveillance. HBV incidence in England is at its lowest level in recent years.

Dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) is caused by dengue virus transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes; mean age of patients varies temporally and geographically. Variability in age of patients may be due to differences in transmission intensity or demographic structure. To compare these two hypotheses, the mean age of DHF patients from 90 districts in northern Thailand (1994–1996, 2002–2004) was regressed against (i) Aedes abundance or (ii) demographic variables (birthrate, average age) of the district. We also developed software to quantify direction and strength of geographical gradients of these variables. We found that, after adjusting for socioeconomics, climate, spatial autocorrelation, the mean age of patients was correlated only with Aedes abundance. The geographical gradient of mean age of patients originated from entomological, climate, and socioeconomic gradients. Vector abundance was a stronger determinant of mean age of patients than demographic variables, in northern Thailand.