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Complete left-tail asymptotic for branching processes with immigration

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 August 2026

Anton A. Kutsenko*
Affiliation:
University of Hamburg
*
*Postal address: University of Hamburg, MIN Faculty, Department of Mathematics, 20146 Hamburg, Germany. Email: akucenko@gmail.com
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Abstract

We derive a complete left-tail asymptotic series for the density of the martingale limit of a Galton–Watson process with immigration. We show that the series converges everywhere, not only for small arguments. This is the first complete result regarding the left tails of branching processes with immigration. A good, quickly computed approximation for the density will also be derived from the series.

Information

Type
Original Article
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2026. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Applied Probability Trust
Figure 0

Figure 1. Julia set for the polynomial P(z)=0.1z+0.5z2+0.4z3$P(z)=0.1z+0.5z^2+0.4z^3$. It is the boundary of the open filled Julia set JP$\mathscr{J}_P$ (JP=JP0$\mathscr{J}_P=\mathscr{J}_P^{\kern1pt 0}$ for this case), which is the domain of definition for the analytic function Φ$\Phi$, see (7), since Pt(z)→0$P_t(z)\to0$ when z∈JP0$z\in \mathscr{J}_P^{\kern1pt 0}$, and the convergence to zero is exponentially fast with the factor p1=P′(0)$p_1=P'(0)$. The unit disk belongs to JP0$\mathscr{J}_P^{\kern1pt 0}$.

Figure 1

Figure 2. For the case (18), the approximation of the density (14) is compared with (9).

Figure 2

Figure 3. For the case (18) with p1=0.3$p_1=0.3$ and q0=0.5$q_0=0.5$, the approximations of the density (14), (17), and the Fourier inversion formula (9) are compared.