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With the recent resurgence of global measles outbreaks, it is crucial to understand measles transmission dynamics to guide timely and effective public health responses and parameterize infectious disease models for accurate outbreak projections. This systematic review aims to provide a comprehensive resource of measles transmission-related epidemiological parameters. A search was conducted from inception to 14 May 2024. English and French primary studies of transmission-related epidemiological parameters were included, and standard systematic review methodology was followed. Evidence was synthesized using random-effects meta-analyses and descriptive plots. Subgroup analyses by World Health Organization (WHO) region, population, decade, and quality of reporting were conducted to explore heterogeneity. Between 1910 and 2024, 1 209 estimates across 32 transmission-related epidemiological parameters from 612 studies were reported. Measles was characterized by a pooled incubation period (13.5 days, 95%CI 12.6–14.4; I2 = 95.9%), serial interval (12.4 days, 95%CI 11.5–13.4; I2 = 97.6%), symptom onset to hospitalization (4.8 days, 95%CI 3.7–5.8, I2 = 99.7%), and basic reproduction number median 11.5 (range of 0–57). This work is part of a global epidemic preparedness and response project to establish an accessible living Global Repository of Epidemiological Parameters aimed at reducing duplicative efforts in identifying and summarizing epidemiological parameters.
Social contact surveys, measuring who contacts whom, are widely used for epidemic intelligence and public health decision-making. Despite their widespread use, sample size calculations are not performed. We conducted a review of social contact surveys (2008–2025) to characterize current practice. We characterized the impact of survey size on epidemic metrics using two social contact surveys, the UK Social Contact Survey and POLYMOD (Europe), and two methods. For each dataset and approach, we generated repeated subsamples and calculated the resulting reproduction numbers, characterized their distributions, and measured uncertainty. We identified 107 unique social contact surveys from 57 studies. Sample sizes ranged from 30 to more than 10 000 participants, with a median of 1 438. One quarter of surveys contained fewer than 1 000 participants. Our analysis supports recruiting at least 1 000 participants for general-population social contact surveys used for epidemic modelling. Increasing sample size to 2 000 participants provides worthwhile gains in the precision of epidemic estimates, particularly for analyses using finer age stratification or individual-level approaches. Beyond approximately 3 000 participants, additional improvements in precision were small for the epidemic metrics analysed. This provides a practical balance between precision and participant burden.
The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted primary care, including childhood infection management. Public health measures reduced respiratory infections, raising concerns about an ‘immunity debt’ in children. General practitioners (GPs) faced fewer in-person consultations, evolving diagnostic routines, and changing parental expectations. While hospital data are available, effects in general practice are less studied.
Methods:
A cross-sectional online survey was conducted among Dutch GPs with experience before and after the pandemic. The 35-item questionnaire addressed infection patterns, management, parental behaviour, and communication.
Results:
Of 166 GPs, 32% noted changes in infection management and 44% observed altered seasonal trends. While consultation rates remained stable, diagnostic testing and antibiotic use increased. GPs reported longer consultations and rising parental demands, especially among those with lower health literacy or migrant backgrounds.
Conclusion:
GPs reported key shifts in managing childhood infections. Strengthening communication and further qualitative research may enhance care and equity.
Compliance with epidemic prevention norms has been found to be higher in developing regions than in developed regions; however, the nature and underlying mechanisms remain unclear. We propose that socioeconomic development of environments changes the adaptive benefits of fundamental social motives, especially disease avoidance and familial motives, which shape variations in compliance during pandemics. To examine the effects of these motives on the relationship between socioeconomic environments and compliance, we conducted three studies measuring environmental socioeconomic development with the Human Development Index (HDI). Study 1 (with two datasets: N = 43,244, 53 countries; N = 94,657, 71 countries) revealed a stable negative correlation between country-level HDI and compliance, even after controlling disease severity, government responses, and individualism. Studies 2 (an analysis of social media text data; N = 22,588, 31 provinces) and 3 (a large-sample survey; N = 6,122, 31 cities) replicated this correlation in China at the provincial and city levels, and identified disease avoidance and familial motives as mediators. These findings provide evidence for how socioeconomic environments shape compliance during pandemics, highlight the importance of familial motives alongside disease avoidance, and offer insights into tailoring public health strategies across diverse environments.
Vaccinations play a crucial role in public and personal health. Vaccines such as the Yellow Fever 17D vaccine are effective at preventing disease and provide lifelong immunity with few adverse events. Leveraging the increase in electronic medical records and the widespread use of machine learning algorithms in healthcare, this study aims to investigate and develop an algorithmic framework for analyzing clinical data on Yellow Fever 17D vaccinations in order to predict at-risk populations for adverse events following immunizations. This research incorporates parameters from the patient’s medical history and demographic information.
Methods:
To build our analytic framework, we tested five machine learning algorithms: random forest, gradient boost, logistic regression, XGBoost, and Bernoulli naïve Bayes. We cleaned and managed the datasets through EHRchitect software. We assessed the performance of the algorithms using standard metrics, including precision, recall, F1-scores, accuracy, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Additionally, we implemented population sampling to mitigate potential biases common in clinical data and performed parameter ranking analysis to identify the most influential features in classifying patient reaction outcomes.
Results:
We found that logistic regression produced the highest performance, and through hyperparameter optimization, we developed a framework with precision, accuracy, and ROC scores of 87.7%, 99.0%, and 0.818, respectively.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, this study examined five modeling algorithms to establish a framework for analyzing real-world data and to predict at-risk populations for adverse events following immunization. We incorporated a logistic regression algorithm to assess our clinical data to achieve a high-precision performance model for classifying patient predictions.
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic were known to create an immunity debt. This study aimed to quantify the immunity debt for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), adenovirus, group A Streptococcus (GAS), and influenza in Japan between 2014 and 2024. We conducted a retrospective observational study using national surveillance data and electronic health records in 23 clinics. We conducted an interrupted time series analysis using a quasi-Poisson regression model to estimate the counterfactual incidence that would have occurred in the absence of NPIs. The number of RSV cases declined by 84% in the 2020–2021 season and increased by 39% in the 2021–2022 season, primarily due to an increase in cases among 2-year-old children (94%). Adenovirus, GAS, and influenza were suppressed during the 2020–2022 season by 58–99%. Adenovirus cases increased by 195% in 2023, with a 458% increase among children aged 5–9 years. GAS increased by 36% in 2024, with a 96% increase among 10- to 14-year-olds. Influenza increased by 158% in 2023, with a 299% increase among 10- to 14-year-olds. Surveillance data and 23 clinics’ data showed similar trends. The study suggests that the intensity and timing of the immunity debt differed by pathogen.
Government guidance published during the COVID-19 pandemic implied that employers owe a duty to protect their employees from the risk of infectious disease in the workplace. That employers owe a duty in respect of occupational disease – including occupational infectious disease – is well established. However, there is no authority to support the proposition that the employer’s duty extends to include infectious diseases in general circulation in the community (e.g. COVID-19, flu, measles). The Government’s guidance was therefore based on a misunderstanding of employers’ liability. This article argues that infectious diseases in general circulation are, and should remain, beyond the scope of the employer’s duty in English law.
Cervical cancer, primarily caused by human papillomavirus (HPV), is the most common cancer in women in sub-Saharan Africa and the most common cause of cancer fatalities among women on the continent. While both prevention and early detection are possible through HPV vaccination and cervical cancer screening, health system capacity is inadequate for screening and there are pervasive negative attitudes and beliefs. A major, modifiable but understudied barrier is cancer stigma, which underlies suboptimal vaccination efforts as well as cancer screening. Adhering to the PRISMA, ScR guidelines, we conducted a scoping review exploring HPV and cervical cancer stigma in Africa. We included studies that described stigma in relation to HPV or cervical cancer in Africa or among people of African descent. Forty-three studies described HPV and cervical cancer stigma in a dozen countries in sub-Saharan Africa and none in North Africa. Internalized, enacted and anticipated forms of stigma occurred at the individual, family and community levels. The four main themes that emerged include (1) how lack of knowledge and false perception hinders screening and vaccine uptake; (2) stigma in the context of practical barriers to care; (3) acceptability of education and interventions to reduce stigma and (4) stigma as a contributor to psychological distress and treatment outcomes. Only two studies described interventions focused on eliminating stigma through promoting cervical cancer and HPV-related knowledge, targeting misinformation and incorporating patient navigation. Addressing stigma is essential, as it is a key barrier to HPV vaccination, cervical cancer screening and timely treatment. We call for future studies to develop culturally informed interventions to reduce stigma and improve cervical cancer outcomes across all regions in Africa.
After a tsunami, refugees are at risk of numerous causes of morbidity and mortality. Endemic diseases, such as malaria, are among the most common. This case forces participants to consider and diagnose endemic diseases in the setting of a disaster, including determining appropriate workup, both for the end diagnosis and to rule out alternatives, as well as the correct treatment of endemic disease.
The presence of children in eighteenth-century English voluntary hospitals is an area of increasing interest and attention. The Northampton Infirmary admission records detail inpatient and outpatient ages from 1744 to 1804, allowing for longitudinal investigations of children in the institution. The most common distempers affecting children were surgical infections, infectious diseases, and skin diseases; fifty-six per cent of the child patients were male and 43.3 per cent were female. Nearly seventy-five per cent of children left the hospital ‘cured’. This article outlines the Northampton Infirmary Eighteenth Century Child Admission Database, and demonstrates how the patterning of distempers within and among children provides insight into the health journeys of eighteenth-century children through the lens of their bodies, their parents, and their institutional recommenders.
Both sex (biological) and gender (socio-cultural) are increasingly recognized as important factors in disease risks and outcomes, including parasitic infections and especially those of the genital tract. Many funding agencies now require these dimensions be incorporated into research proposals, though little guidance is given regarding how, leading to confusion among those who do not specialize in this area. In this commentary, I review instances of the use of the word ‘gender’ in the archives of Parasitology (174 articles) to assess how parasitologists are progressing in the incorporation of this dimension and identify what can be done to improve efforts. Use of the term has increased since 1990, reflecting an enthusiasm among parasitologists for including this dimension to their work. Examination of articles which use this term reveals that correct and thorough incorporation of the gender dimension has also increased, but that these articles only account for 8.0% of all articles using the term, demonstrating widespread persistent confusion around terminology regarding sex and gender and how to best account for gender in parasitological research. Parasitologists studying animals should only refer to sex and should incorporate sex into their research design and report whether there are differences in baseline or response between sexes. Parasitologists studying humans should incorporate sex, but then also consider whether any observed differences are due to biological factors like sex hormones and immunity or gendered social variables like behavioural norms and healthcare access. These considerations will further our understanding of host–parasite interactions and improve health outcomes.
Evaluate factors influencing the decision-making processes of school administrators and investigate the existence and use of emergency operations plans (EOPs) during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Methods
Using survey data representative of US K-12 public schools in 2022, the prevalence of 16 factors that influenced reporting school administrators’ COVID-19 prevention strategy implementation decision-making (Wave 4; N = 399) and the presence and use of school EOPs (Wave 5; N = 400) are presented overall and by urban-rural classification, poverty level, and school level. Qualitative interviews were conducted with a subset of school administrators and used thematic analysis to understand factors influencing implementation of prevention strategies and emergency preparedness.
Results
School district requirements or recommendations (81.6%) was the top reported factor influencing decisions on the use of COVID-19 prevention strategies. Although most schools created or updated their EOP during the 2021/2022 school year (78.1%), only 26.7% implemented or exercised an EOP during the COVID-19 pandemic. Themes from qualitative analysis focused on factors influencing the implementation of prevention strategies, limitations of current EOPs, and importance of continuous investment in school preparedness.
Conclusions
Investing in actions to improve schools’ capacity to respond to emergencies such as developing comprehensive EOPs, building partnerships, and defining roles and responsibilities is important.
In March 2024, the East Midlands Health Protection Team was notified of a case of invasive Group A Streptococcus (iGAS) infection in an elderly care home resident. Twenty-two days later, another case in a resident from the same floor of the care home was notified. In accordance with national guidelines, an outbreak was declared, and a multidisciplinary outbreak control team (OCT) was urgently convened. Screening for GAS throat carriage was undertaken for staff and residents, excluding those receiving end-of-life care. All isolates were strain typed and characterised. Infection prevention and control (IPC) visits were undertaken to provide ongoing support. Screening identified five residents and five staff members positive for GAS. Antibiotic prophylaxis was provided to all staff throughout the setting (n = 74) and all residents on the affected floor (n = 35). Three individuals were positive on repeat screening. All staff and residents screened negative after 4 months and the two clinical cases recovered. Eleven of the 12 GAS isolates were identified as emm 3.93. This outbreak highlighted the importance of rapid screening, possible only through the deployment of a dedicated team, and rescreening post-decolonising treatment, as a means to contain such outbreaks.
In this chapter of Complex Ethics Consultations: Cases that Haunt Us, the author describes a case wherein surgical instruments were reused after a prion disease case at a time when the protocol would have been to discard them. Given that there are no interventions available for this prion disease questions arose regarding disclosure, in particular when it would be required and who would be in a position to provide that disclosure.
A 35-year-old gravida 4 para 3 presents with a fever and diarrhea in the setting of exposure to raw and unpasteurized foods. Symptoms are consistent with listeriosis and a local outbreak of Listeria monocytogenes is identified. The patient is managed inpatient with empiric high-dose amoxicillin for 14 days while awaiting blood culture results, along with fetal monitoring and supportive care to prevent dehydration and electrolyte imbalance. L. monocytogenes causes the clinical disease listeriosis and about 16% of cases occur in pregnant women. Increased susceptibility to listeriosis is partly due to reduced T cell immunity. Symptoms can range from asymptomatic to severe disease with neurological symptoms. Transplacental infection can occur with neonatal disease even in the absence of maternal symptoms. Maternal, perinatal, and neonatal morbidity and mortality are high. The best strategy is primary prevention by avoiding high-risk foods such as deli meat and soft cheeses, along with raw and unpasteurized foods. Safe food storage and preparation techniques also have a role in decreasing infection from cross contamination. Individual decision-making and a discussion of risks should guide individual food related decisions.
Serogroup epidemiology of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) is constantly evolving, varying by time and location. Surveillance reports have indicated a rise in meningococcal serogroup Y (MenY) in some regions in recent years. This systematic literature review explores the evolving epidemiology of MenY IMD globally based on review of recent articles and national surveillance reports published between 1 January 2010 and 25 March 2021. Generally, MenY incidence was low (<0.2/100,000) across all ages in most countries. The reported incidence was more frequent among infants, adolescents, and those aged ≥65 years. More than 10% of all IMD cases were MenY in some locations and time periods. Implementation of vaccination evolved over time as the rise in MenY IMD percentage occurred. Cases decreased in countries with quadrivalent vaccine programs (e.g., United Kingdom, the Netherlands, United States, and Australia), whereas the MenY burden increased and made up a large proportion of cases in areas without vaccine programs. Continuous monitoring of epidemiologic changes of IMD is essential to establish MenY burden and for implementation of prevention strategies.
Identifying persons with HIV (PWH) at increased risk for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is complicated because memory deficits are common in HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders (HAND) and a defining feature of amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI; a precursor to AD). Recognition memory deficits may be useful in differentiating these etiologies. Therefore, neuroimaging correlates of different memory deficits (i.e., recall, recognition) and their longitudinal trajectories in PWH were examined.
Design:
We examined 92 PWH from the CHARTER Program, ages 45–68, without severe comorbid conditions, who received baseline structural MRI and baseline and longitudinal neuropsychological testing. Linear and logistic regression examined neuroanatomical correlates (i.e., cortical thickness and volumes of regions associated with HAND and/or AD) of memory performance at baseline and multilevel modeling examined neuroanatomical correlates of memory decline (average follow-up = 6.5 years).
Results:
At baseline, thinner pars opercularis cortex was associated with impaired recognition (p = 0.012; p = 0.060 after correcting for multiple comparisons). Worse delayed recall was associated with thinner pars opercularis (p = 0.001) and thinner rostral middle frontal cortex (p = 0.006) cross sectionally even after correcting for multiple comparisons. Delayed recall and recognition were not associated with medial temporal lobe (MTL), basal ganglia, or other prefrontal structures. Recognition impairment was variable over time, and there was little decline in delayed recall. Baseline MTL and prefrontal structures were not associated with delayed recall.
Conclusions:
Episodic memory was associated with prefrontal structures, and MTL and prefrontal structures did not predict memory decline. There was relative stability in memory over time. Findings suggest that episodic memory is more related to frontal structures, rather than encroaching AD pathology, in middle-aged PWH. Additional research should clarify if recognition is useful clinically to differentiate aMCI and HAND.
This Element examines two prominent public health crises – the emergence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in British cattle and the COVID-19 pandemic. It contends that a group of arguments called the informal fallacies functioned as cognitive heuristics and facilitated public health reasoning during both crises. These arguments, which include the argument from ignorance, the argument from authority, and circular argument, are particularly well adapted to the type of uncertainty that surrounds the emergence of novel infectious diseases. By bridging gaps in knowledge, these arguments can facilitate reasoning when evidence about these diseases is limited and the need to take action is urgent. The Element charts a public health journey beginning in the 1950s with a disease called kuru, then examines the response to the emergence of BSE in 1986 and extends to the present day with the COVID-19 pandemic. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
Studies on climate variables and food pathogens are either pathogen- or region-specific, necessitating a consolidated view on the subject. This study aims to systematically review all studies on the association of ambient temperature and precipitation on the incidence of gastroenteritis and bacteraemia from Salmonella, Shigella, Campylobacter, Vibrio, and Listeria species. PubMed, Ovid MEDLINE, Scopus, and Web of Science databases were searched up to 9 March 2023. We screened 3,204 articles for eligibility and included 83 studies in the review and three in the meta-analysis. Except for one study on Campylobacter, all showed a positive association between temperature and Salmonella, Shigella, Vibrio sp., and Campylobacter gastroenteritis. Similarly, most of the included studies showed that precipitation was positively associated with these conditions. These positive associations were found regardless of the effect measure chosen. The pooled incidence rate ratio (IRR) for the three studies that included bacteraemia from Campylobacter and Salmonella sp. was 1.05 (95 per cent confidence interval (95% CI): 1.03, 1.06) for extreme temperature and 1.09 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.19) for extreme precipitation. If current climate trends continue, our findings suggest these pathogens would increase patient morbidity, the need for hospitalization, and prolonged antibiotic courses.
Between 2016 and 2020 the Australian government established a regional health security diplomacy project, known as the Indo–Pacific Centre for Health Security. In light of the COVID-19 pandemic, the initiative looked prescient. Its roots, however, could be traced back to Australia’s engagement with health security in the early 2000s. Then, as now, the government aligned its foreign policy agenda with health – specifically emerging infectious diseases – as a ‘scaled up’ approach comprising diplomatic, aid, and research and development. To explain Australia’s evolving relationship with health security this chapter proceeds in four parts. First, health security is situated with the recent tradition of ‘non-traditional security’. The second part examines the establishment of health security as a core theme in Australia’s response to global challenges. The third part turns to the government’s strategy and especially the Indo–Pacific Centre for Health Security both before and during the COVID-19 era. Finally, the chapter examines how Australia conceptualised its leadership role in regional health security.