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The chapter examines the dynamics of the successful growth path of the Polish economy in the twenty-first century, but also the clashes over foreign bank ownership, over exchange-rate policy (including the question of Poland joining the euro), and above all over the politics of the central bank. Inflation remained a neuralgic point. Discussions about inflation levels remained highly controversial: in the early 2010s, there was criticism about too low inflation; after 2020, and especially after 2022 and the Russian attack on Ukraine, criticism of high inflation, and of the politicization of the central bank. Money remained linked with political security.
Examines the financial and economic challenges facing the new Polish state, the Second Republic, including the integration of different institutional and monetary systems and the need for monetary stabilization. The postwar Polish inflation, which morphed into galloping inflation and then hyperinflation, had its origins in fiscal deficits directly monetized by the central bank. But there was a substantial difference of opinion on the best approach to monetary stabilization: either fiscal stabilization, or assistance from the outside through a foreign loan. Zygmunt Karpiński and Feliks Młynarski, the two men who decisively shaped the intellectual orientation of the new central bank, the Bank Polski (BP), emphasized the importance of a balanced budget as a prerequisite for monetary stabilization. They also conceived of introducing a new stable currency to run concurrently with the old depreciating currency: the new currency, the złoty, had in its name an explicit reference to gold.
The Introduction lays out the dilemma of modern central banks in terms of the “Odysseus contract” under which central bankers guide the ship of state safely through monetary turbulence, with wax stuffed in their ears so that they ignore calls for generosity and complaints about meanness, while the political master – Odysseus, the government, the people – agrees to be bound. Poland in the 1920s and again in the 1990s tried to establish such a central bank, in the wake of the reestablishment of the state. Important theorists conceptualized the central bank as part of an underground, alternative state, during moments of foreign rule: the nineteenth century division of Poland, the German occupation of 1939–45, and communist rule. Security considerations played a prominent role, and dictated the national importance of building up gold reserves, especially at moments of geopolitical strain.
The Złoty draws on recently available Polish archival material from central banks and international institutions to show how long-lived debates about inflation have been central in Polish political history. It offers surprising revelations about the drama of the evacuation and legal treatment of the central bank's gold after the German invasion of 1939 and the long struggle for economic and monetary reform while Poland was part of the Soviet system, going back to the late 1950s. It includes interwar and post-1990 sections that give an exemplary case of how a country on the periphery of the international economic system tried hard to integrate, ultimately failing in the first instance, while succeeding with dramatic success over the past thirty-five years. Written in gripping and non-technical language, this book offers a scholarly yet accessible account of Poland's struggles with inflation, foreign debt, and Nazi and communist rule.
This final chapter of Part III focuses on applications of spontaneous symmetry breaking in cosmology. It introduces the phase transitions believed to occur in the early universe and their possible relations to theories of cosmological inflation. Topological defects in the structure of the universe as a consequence of phase transitions in the early epochs are classified and analysed.
Chapter 11 compares and contrasts Indonesia, under Sukarno, and Burma's military governments. The stagnant economies of both are assessed and the absence of recourse to the price mechanism highlighted.
This chapter analyses socialist financial systems and their common features of mono-banks, fiscal deficits and printing money to finance these. The chapter also looks at the plural society.
Americans have struggled to reconcile capitalism and war. Over three centuries of history, they have grappled with fundamental tensions between capitalism and security. The combination of war and capitalism often created disruptions and deep inequities that ordinary Americans and their leaders decided must be moderated for the sake of a more successful and politically sustainable war effort. For much of the nation’s history, capitalism was understood to be an insufficient provider of security; the U.S. military economy was semi-socialized, in both peacetime and wartime. But as the record of recent decades has highlighted, Americans have not experienced an ever-higher ratcheting of regulation and socialism, with each new war, over the long run. Rather, the historical record suggests that many postwar demobilizations served to reinforce capitalism. For the nation’s entire history, struggles over the economics of war and national security have been important parts of U.S. political development. This will continue to be the case in the current century, as Americans battle over economic policy and fight new wars, domestically and abroad.
This paper investigates the effects on consumer welfare of changing food-at-home (FAH) and food-away-from-home (FAFH) prices in a period that witnessed two major economic shocks: the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent abnormal inflation. Even though FAFH prices increased more than FAH during this period, we find that FAH price increases have led to more significant and volatile welfare losses compared to changes in FAFH prices. The article makes two contributions to the literature. First, using a complete demand system that is comprised of nine expenditure categories, including FAH, FAFH, and seven other broad non-food aggregates, we estimate the household welfare losses in consumer surplus from changing prices of FAH and FAFH incorporating the own- and cross-price effects. Our findings reveal that own-price effects dominate welfare losses with negligible cross effects, resulting in 11.2% and 7% losses in consumer welfare from FAH and FAFH price increases, respectively, as a percentage of total food spending after the COVID-19 pandemic. Second, the dominance of the own price effects suggests that the easier-to-estimate conditional demand systems (foods only) may be sufficient for conducting welfare analysis of changes in food prices.
After a period of stable prices in advanced economies, inflation surged in 2022, largely driven by substantial increases in international food and energy prices. Using electronic payments data to estimate a demand system, we derive expenditure and price elasticities and evaluate the welfare effects of these relative price changes for Portuguese consumers. Our results indicate an average welfare loss of approximately 10% of total expenditure, disproportionately affecting lower-spending consumers. Furthermore, we observe that lower-expenditure consumers generally have larger price elasticities than their higher-spending counterparts. These results reinforce the evidence of the unequal welfare costs of inflation on consumers.
Central bank mandates have evolved with time beyond price stability and economic growth objectives to include financial stability, financial inclusion, and, more recently, climate change in some jurisdictions. This chapter analyses the potential role of central banks in dealing with increasingly significant climate risk. Existing literature suggests that physical and transition risks from climate change are key risks to macroeconomic and financial stability. The chapter argues that central banks should, therefore, at a minimum, incorporate climate risk in their macroeconomic and financial stability risk assessments to determine appropriate policy and regulatory tools for addressing them within the boundaries of existing mandates and underpinned by a transparent framework of decision-making and accountability. Central banks should avoid mission creep by remaining focused on achieving clear statutory objectives, while at the same time avoiding possible legal and credibility risks from doing nothing or too little, too late. The chapter further argues that central banks in emerging and developing economies face peculiar challenges in assessing the dynamics of climate risk, estimating potential impacts, and calibrating tools to address potential impacts on price or financial stability. It concludes by recognising progress at the international level and calls for additional guidance, particularly for central banks in emerging and developing economies, to help design proportional and effective central bank policy and regulatory measures to help contain significant climate risks they face.
Inflation is introduced as a possible resolution of the flatness and horizon puzzles. Scalar field dynamics are discussed, and both exact constant-equation-of-state solutions and slow-roll inflationary solutions are presented. This chapter also includes a description of quadratic, Starobinsky, and Higgs inflation, before discussing the end of inflation and reheating. A rather drastically different alternative, ekpyrosis, is also presented. The associated cyclic model of the universe is introduced, and the difficulties in describing cosmic bounces from a contracting to an expanding phase are analyzed.
Describes the major research project on stagflation led by Meade from 1978 to 1987 and his concurrent activities, especially his involvement with the new Social Democratic Party.
To date, there has been a long-term debate between the monetarists and Keynesian schools on the elements of inflation in countries, whether monetary or fiscal. Over the years, with the advent of the political economics and the governments’ active participations to the economic and social activities, a new factor, among others, in the name of good governance – say, controlling the corruption level – has arisen as the decider of inflation in countries. This study aims to examine empirically whether money supply, government expenditure (both capital and revenue) and corruption do maintain any long-run associations and short-run dynamics with inflation for the panel of the world’s 20 leading countries. The results reveal a long-run association between the fiscal, monetary, and governance variables, and inflation; and in the short run, there are causal influences from total government expenditure, money supply and corruption to inflation in developed countries, but capital and revenue expenditures, money supply and corruption cause inflation in developing countries.
This paper studies the price-setting behaviour in food products, using the microdata underlying the Portuguese Consumer Price Index (CPI). We document that, in each month, about 1 in 4 food items changed prices compared to the previous month, including promotions and sales. If these temporary price changes are excluded, the frequency drops to 1 out of 5, on average. Positive price changes were more frequent but had lower magnitudes than negative ones. There were strong heterogeneities in price-setting not only across products but also across industries and outlets. We find that, from 2009 to 2019, food inflation was primarily driven by the relative frequency of positive versus negative price changes, rather than changes in their size, consistent with standard New Keynesian calibrations of price rigidity. Finally, we report that price changes were more frequent at the producer than at the consumer level, but with a lower magnitude. Taken together, these results highlight that the frequency margin is the key driver of inflation dynamics and provide micro evidence supporting widely used macroeconomic calibrations of price rigidity.
'Quantum Cosmology' offers a guided introduction to the quantum aspects of the cosmos. Starting with an overview of early universe cosmology, the book builds up to advanced topics such as the Wheeler–DeWitt equation, gravitational path integrals, and the no-boundary proposal for the wave function of the universe. Readers will explore tunneling processes via Coleman–DeLuccia instantons, the quantum origin of primordial fluctuations, the thermodynamics of horizons, and basic notions of string cosmology. Concepts such as wormholes and semi-classical geometry are introduced with clarity and physical motivation. The book assumes some familiarity with general relativity and quantum mechanics, but little prior knowledge of cosmology. It includes a wide range of exercises, with solutions provided. Written in a pedagogical style, it bridges the gap between undergraduate courses and the research level in this frontier area of theoretical physics.
We analyse the monetary-fiscal policy mix in post-war Europe, focusing on France and Italy, to trace the historical dynamics of debt and inflation. Using a Markov-switching DSGE model, we identify distinct policy regimes: a Passive Monetary-Active Fiscal (PM/AF) regime before the late 1980s/early 1990s, an Active Monetary-Passive Fiscal (AM/PF) regime associated with central bank independence and EMU convergence, and a third regime marked by the ELB and active fiscal measures aimed at recovery. Simulations reveal that the PM/AF regime in France led to price volatility but stabilised debt, while AM/PF curbed inflation at the cost of rising debt. In contrast, Italy’s procyclical fiscal policy in downturns exacerbated imbalances, aggregate volatility, and low growth. We further assess the implications of policy credibility and uncertainty.
Stéphane Dees, Banque de France and Bordeaux School of Economics, University of Bordeaux, France,Selin Ozyurt-Miller, International Finance Corporation
Climate change presents significant risks to economic and financial stability, compelling central banks to address its impacts on inflation and output. As climate-induced disruptions – such as extreme weather events and carbon taxes – affect price stability, central banks must adapt their monetary policies to mitigate these risks. Climate change can trigger inflationary pressures, alter labor productivity, and impact capital stocks, influencing the natural interest rate and overall supply. The ecological transition also poses challenges, potentially causing stagflationary episodes that complicate central banks’ dual mandates of price and output stability. Consequently, central banks are increasingly integrating climate risks into their frameworks, with the aim of maintaining their inflation-targeting objectives while supporting the green transition. Effective policy responses require a deep understanding of climate-related risks, enabling central banks to adjust their monetary tools and align their operations with sustainability goals. Addressing these challenges becomes essential to strengthening economic resilience in the face of climate change.
The pandemic crisis introduced an unprecedented supply-side shock that was global in scope. Despite historically high levels of prior sovereign debt and low bond yields, macroeconomic policy responses included monetised fiscal expansions of extraordinary magnitude. Conventional theory suggests that the combination of supply contractions with such expansions is inflationary, yet central bank discourse during the pandemic expressed little concern about inflation. Our theoretical analysis suggests the presence of strong inflation forces at the time, likely offset by continuing pessimism shocks, consumption constraints and expectations management. In prominent advanced countries over more than a century, monetised fiscal expansions are shown to have preceded inflation surges, most strongly following signature episodes like WWII.
The EU has become increasingly responsible for the state of national economies over the last decades. Meanwhile, many observers have claimed that this increased responsibility has not translated into more accountability. In this article, we revisit this literature and analyse vote‐popularity functions before and after accession because it provides a situation when the EU is an incumbent and when it is not. Using Eurobarometer surveys from 2001 to 2011, which were carried out in the countries that joined the EU in 2004 and 2007, we first show that individuals do not hold the EU accountable for macroeconomic performances before accession, but that they do after accession. Using European Election Studies surveys, we also indicate that the incumbent European Peoples’ Party is held accountable for the state of the economy in countries that are ruled by the EU, but not in countries that have just become EU members.