The Birkhoff ergodic theorem establishes pointwise convergence for integrable observables, but for $f\notin L^1$, no normalization yields almost sure convergence. This paper investigates trimmed ergodic sums, where the largest observations are removed, for observables with polynomial tails satisfying $\mathbb {P}(f>t)\,t^{1/\alpha }\to c>0$ as $t\to \infty $, in exponentially mixing dynamical systems. We prove trimmed strong laws of large numbers when $\alpha \geq 1$, extending known results from the independent and identically distributed case. We further establish distributional limit theorems for both lightly and intermediately trimmed sums in the regime $\alpha>1/2$, showing convergence to an explicitly described non-standard law and to a normal distribution, respectively. The proofs rely on approximating trimmed sums by truncated ergodic sums and exploiting the system’s exponential mixing properties.

We consider the problem of estimating fractional processes based on noisy high-frequency data. Generalizing the idea of pre-averaging to a fractional setting, we exhibit a sequence of consistent estimators for the unknown parameters of interest by proving a law of large numbers for associated variation functionals. In contrast to the semimartingale setting, the optimal window size for pre-averaging depends on the unknown roughness parameter of the underlying process. We evaluate the performance of our estimators in a simulation study and use them to empirically verify Kolmogorov’s $2/3$-law in turbulence data contaminated by instrument noise.

This paper deals with ergodic theorems for particular time-inhomogeneous Markov processes, whose time-inhomogeneity is asymptotically periodic. Under a Lyapunov/minorization condition, it is shown that, for any measurable bounded function f, the time average $\frac{1}{t} \int_0^t f(X_s)ds$ converges in $\mathbb{L}^2$ towards a limiting distribution, starting from any initial distribution for the process $(X_t)_{t \geq 0}$. This convergence can be improved to an almost sure convergence under an additional assumption on the initial measure. This result is then applied to show the existence of a quasi-ergodic distribution for processes absorbed by an asymptotically periodic moving boundary, satisfying a conditional Doeblin condition.

In the classical simple random walk the steps are independent, that is, the walker has no memory. In contrast, in the elephant random walk, which was introduced by Schütz and Trimper [19] in 2004, the next step always depends on the whole path so far. Our main aim is to prove analogous results when the elephant has only a restricted memory, for example remembering only the most remote step(s), the most recent step(s), or both. We also extend the models to cover more general step sizes.

A general multi-type population model is considered, where individuals live and reproduce according to their age and type, but also under the influence of the size and composition of the entire population. We describe the dynamics of the population as a measure-valued process and obtain its asymptotics as the population grows with the environmental carrying capacity. Thus, a deterministic approximation is given, in the form of a law of large numbers, as well as a central limit theorem. This general framework is then adapted to model sexual reproduction, with a special section on serial monogamic mating systems.

In this paper we introduce the multivariate Brownian semistationary (BSS) process and study the joint asymptotic behaviour of its realised covariation using in-fill asymptotics. First, we present a central limit theorem for general multivariate Gaussian processes with stationary increments, which are not necessarily semimartingales. Then, we show weak laws of large numbers, central limit theorems, and feasible results for BSS processes. An explicit example based on the so-called gamma kernels is also provided.

We present a law of large numbers and a central limit theorem for the time to absorption of Λ-coalescents with dust started from n blocks, as n→∞. The proofs rely on an approximation of the logarithm of the block-counting process by means of a drifted subordinator.

We consider a general class of epidemic models obtained by applying the random time changes of Ethier and Kurtz (2005) to a collection of Poisson processes and we show the large deviation principle for such models. We generalise the approach followed by Dolgoarshinnykh (2009) in the case of the SIR epidemic model. Thanks to an additional assumption which is satisfied in many examples, we simplify the recent work of Kratz and Pardoux (2017).

The standard Hawkes process is constructed from a homogeneous Poisson process and uses the same exciting function for different generations of offspring. We propose an extension of this process by considering different exciting functions. This consideration may be important in a number of fields; e.g. in seismology, where main shocks produce aftershocks with possibly different intensities. The main results are devoted to the asymptotic behavior of this extension of the Hawkes process. Indeed, a law of large numbers and a central limit theorem are stated. These results allow us to analyze the asymptotic behavior of the process when unpredictable marks are considered.

In this paper we study asymptotic consistency of law invariant convex risk measures and the corresponding risk averse stochastic programming problems for independent, identically distributed data. Under mild regularity conditions, we prove a law of large numbers and epiconvergence of the corresponding statistical estimators. This can be applied in a straightforward way to establish convergence with probability 1 of sample-based estimators of risk averse stochastic programming problems.

This year we celebrate the 300th anniversary of Jakob Bernoulli's path-breaking work Ars conjectandi, which appeared in 1713, eight years after his death. In Part IV of his masterpiece, Bernoulli proves the law of large numbers which is one of the fundamental theorems in probability theory, statistics and actuarial science. We review and comment on his original proof.

In this paper we study limit theorems for the Feller game which is constructed from one-dimensional simple symmetric random walks, and corresponds to the St. Petersburg game. Motivated by a generalization of the St. Petersburg game which was investigated by Gut (2010), we generalize the Feller game by introducing the parameter α. We investigate limit distributions of the generalized Feller game corresponding to the results of Gut. Firstly, we give the weak law of large numbers for α=1. Moreover, for 0<α≤1, we have convergence in distribution to a stable law with index α. Finally, some limit theorems for a polynomial size and a geometric size deviation are given.