Misallocation of workers and their human capital across sectors has negative implications for productivity. The literature examining this type of labor misallocation has mostly assumed a Cobb–Douglas production function, which is at odds with important macroeconomic frameworks and empirical evidence. Our paper hence suggests a new twist to revisit the question: to what extent does human capital misallocation across sectors explain why some countries are so much richer than others? Our innovation consists of incorporating a more flexible and empirically plausible CES production structure with different labor skill types into the misallocation literature. The results from this analysis indicate that human capital misallocation can explain approximately 15% of output per worker variation across countries, which is about one fourth less than under the conventional Cobb–Douglas specification (21%). This suggests that labor market efficiency may be less of a problem for aggregate productivity differences than previously thought.

This paper first presents a dynamic model that features both real and monetary aspects of international trade and is capable of dealing with both full employment and secular unemployment. The model is then utilized to examine the effect of a tariff on the terms of trade, the trade pattern, real consumption, and employment of labor. It is shown that with full employment in both countries, a small tariff by the home country increases its real consumption at the expense of the foreign country by improving the terms of trade. These results however are reversed in the presence of unemployment in both countries. We also examine the asymmetric case and calibrate our model to evaluate numerically the effect of large tariff changes. The main finding is that the effects of tariffs on consumption are opposite in the absence and the presence of unemployment.

We test the effects of metal price shocks on property crime rates in Chilean mining municipalities during the early-2000s commodity boom – known as the ‘super cycle’ – and examine plausible transmission channels. We find that metal prices exerted a positive cumulative effect on property crime rates over time. Rising prices led to increased expected unskilled wages and, in turn, higher school dropout rates. Eventual declines in prices were unaccompanied by a symmetric return to schooling or wage declines to maintain full employment, resulting in increased unskilled unemployment and, ultimately, increased property crime rates. Reduced-form and simultaneous-equation models confirm the proposed channels, which appear specific to metal-mining municipalities and to property crimes.

This paper examines how bargaining frictions generate privately inefficient job separations and amplify unemployment fluctuations. I propose a simple specification of bargaining friction by including bargaining wedges in the standard Nash bargaining model. Such bargaining wedges arise when, for example, wages are determined by alternating-offers bargaining, which is often used in the literature to generate real wage rigidity, or when there is asymmetric information about worker’s productivity. I show that due to the misalignment between actual surpluses and bargaining surpluses, inefficient separations could be generated, which would in turn induce inefficient unemployment. I highlight a distinct amplification mechanism that operates through the separation margin. The existence of inefficient unemployment due to bargaining friction could accentuate the fluctuation of unemployment. Quantitatively, I find that inefficient unemployment accounts for up to 30% of the total unemployment volatility in the calibrated model.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, many governments recommended quarantine to those who had close contact with infected individuals. We conducted a large-scale retrospective survey to study the consequences of such quarantine for labor outcomes. A sizable fraction of quarantined workers experienced reductions in hours worked and earnings, not only during quarantine but also after quarantine. Even uninfected workers experienced negative labor impacts, likely capturing the pure effects of quarantine independent of the effects of COVID-19 symptoms. Non-regular workers and workers without remote work options were more negatively affected by quarantine. We estimate that the quarantine resulted in a large reduction in the aggregate hours and that the reduction is mainly due to the scarring effects.

I evaluate differences in the response of the U.S. economy to productivity shocks around the effective lower bound (ELB) using post-WWII data. My empirical results indicate that positive productivity shocks are more expansionary when monetary policy operates away from the ELB, in line with a basic New Keynesian model, compared to the ELB regime. The interest-sensitive component of GDP, i.e., private investment, is the main driver of this nonlinear response. I find evidence of regime thresholds beyond the standard 0.25% Federal Funds Rate definition of the ELB that could influence the state-dependent shock response of the economy. My work highlights the role played by the monetary policy channel in changing the propagation of productivity shocks to the U.S. economy.

Over recent decades, we find about $80\%$ of widening residual wage inequality to be within jobs (industry-occupation pairs). To explore the underlying drivers, we incorporate into a sorting equilibrium framework with two extensive margin channels (across-job sorting and within-job selection of a performance-pay position) and an intensive margin channel (quality of skill match), in addition to residual job productivity. We show that equilibrium sorting is positively assortative both within and across jobs. By calibrating the model to the United States in 1990 and 2000, we find the improved match quality and rising performance-pay incidence amplify each other, jointly accounting for about $90\%$ of the widening within-job wage inequality. Match quality and performance pay are particularly important in jobs with rising average wages and expansionary employment. Once performance pay and match quality channels are incorporated, job sorting becomes less important and residual job productivity becomes inconsequential throughout.

Climate change increasingly threatens human development, economic resilience and labour market stability. Using panel data from Chinese A-share listed firms (2007–2021), this study quantifies the employment impacts of extreme temperatures. A one-standard-deviation increase in exposure reduces employment by 0.07 per cent, equivalent to an average loss of 0.0054 workers per firm and 4.36 jobs across the sample. Extreme heat has a stronger effect than cold, with temperature bin analysis showing an average loss of 0.191 workers per firm and 15.565 jobs overall. Mechanism analyses indicate that extreme temperatures heighten operational risks and financial constraints, reducing labour demand. Internal and external buffers are identified: higher wages mitigate employment losses, government subsidies provide external support, while robot adoption and supply chain concentration show limited moderating effects. Heterogeneity analyses reveal greater vulnerabilities in underdeveloped, resource-dependent and climate-sensitive regions. Results emphasize the need for climate-adaptive policies to protect employment amid rising environmental risks.

Differences in labour market institutions and regulations between countries of the monetary union can cause divergent responses even to a common shock. We augment a multi-country model of the euro area with search and matching framework that differs across Ricardian and hand-to-mouth households. In this setting, we investigate the implications of cross-country heterogeneity in labour market institutions for the conduct of monetary policy in a monetary union. We compute responses to demand and supply shocks under the Taylor rule, asymmetric unemployment targeting, and average inflation targeting. For each rule we distinguish between cases with lower or higher weight on the unemployment gap. Across all rules, responding to unemployment leads to lower losses of employment. Responding to unemployment reduces cross-country differences within the monetary union and consumption inequality between rich and poor households within each country.

I investigate the welfare maximizing steady-state inflation rate in a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model with Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity (DNWR). After matching the annual wage change distribution in the U.S., I demonstrate that DNWR has a significant impact on the economy, particularly when the inflation target is set low. The optimal inflation rate is estimated to be as high as 8.8%, and increasing the inflation target to the optimal level yields a welfare gain of nearly 3.50%. While the results exhibit sensitivity to parameterization, a broad range of calibrations indicates that the optimal inflation rate is consistently above 3%.

We assess how an economy’s wealth distribution shapes its labor market dynamics. We do so in a quantitative job-ladder model featuring directed search, incomplete markets, aggregate shocks, and endogenous on-the-job human capital accumulation. Poorer workers apply for lower-wage jobs when unemployed and under-accumulate human capital when employed to self-insure against unemployment risk. In response to an aggregate downturn, poorer workers reduce their human capital accumulation, all else equal, while richer workers increase it. The wealth distribution therefore matters for the response of aggregate human capital. In the calibrated model, we show that a negative aggregate productivity shock leads to a persistent decline in aggregate human capital, and a more dispersed wealth distribution would amplify this decline.

We perform an experiment which provides a laboratory replica of some important features of the welfare state. In the experiment, all individuals in a group decide whether to make a costly effort, which produces a random (independent) outcome for each one of them. The group members then vote on whether to redistribute the resulting and commonly known total sum of earnings equally amongst themselves. This game has two equilibria, if played once. In one of them, all players make effort and there is little redistribution. In the other one, there is no effort and nothing to redistribute. A solution to the repeated game allows for redistribution and high effort, sustained by the threat to revert to the worst of these equilibria. Our results show that redistribution with high effort is not sustainable. The main reason for the absence of redistribution is that rich agents do not act differently depending on whether the poor have worked hard or not. The equilibrium in which redistribution may be sustained by the threat of punishing the poor if they do not exert effort is not observed in the experiment. Thus, the explanation of the behavior of the subjects lies in Hobbes, not in Rousseau.

Countless experimental studies have shown that markets converge quickly and efficiently to the competitive outcome under many trading institutions, particularly the double auction mechanism. This creates difficulties for Keynesian stories of unemployment creation—which suggest a noncompetitive outcome in an essentially competitive world. Such stories were popular in the late 1960s and 1970s. One of these stories—the dual decision hypothesis of Clower—was seen then as the beginning of a story of unemployment. This article reports the results of an experiment designed to test this hypothesis. Specifically, we set up an experiment in which there are two sequential double-auction markets, in the first of which one good (labour) is traded, after which the second market (goods) is opened and the second good traded. We compare the outcome of our experiment with that of the competitive theory. One general finding is that not enough trade takes place in the two markets. In other words, the usual finding that competitive equilibrium is achieved in double-auction markets is not replicated in this sequential setting.

Inspired by Clower’s conjecture that the necessity of trading through money in monetised economies might hinder convergence to competitive equilibrium, and hence, for example, cause unemployment, we experimentally investigate behaviour in markets where trading has to be done through money. In order to evaluate the properties of these markets, we compare their behaviour to behaviour in markets without money, where money cannot intervene. As the trading mechanism might be a compounding factor, we investigate two kinds of market mechanism: the double auction, where bids, asks and trades take place in continuous time throughout a trading period; and the clearing house, where bids and asks are placed once in a trading period, and which are then cleared by an aggregating device. We thus have four treatments, the pairwise combinations of non-monetised/monetised trading with double auction/clearing house. We find that: convergence is faster under non-monetised trading, implying that the necessity of using money to facilitate trade hinders convergence; that monetised trading is noisier than non-monetised trading; and that the volume of trade and realised surpluses are higher with the double auction than the clearing house. As far as efficiency is concerned, monetised trading lowers both informational and allocational efficiency, and while the double auction outperforms the clearing house in terms of allocational efficiency, the clearing house is marginally better than the double auction in terms of informational efficiency when trade is through money. Crucially we confirm the conjecture that inspired these experiments: that the necessity to use money in trading hinders convergence to competitive equilibrium, lowers realised trades and surpluses, and hence may cause unemployment.

Relying upon an original (country-sector-year) measure of robotic capital ($RK$), we investigate the degree of complementarity/substitutability between robots and workers at different skill levels. We employ nonparametric methods to estimate elasticity of substitution patterns between $RK$ and skilled/unskilled labor over the period 1995–2009. We show that: i) on average, $RK$ exhibits less substitutability with skilled workers compared to unskilled workers, indicating a phenomenon of “RK-Skill complementarity”. This pattern holds in a global context characterized by significant heterogeneity; ii) the dynamic of “RK-Skill complementarity” has increased since the early 2000s; iii) the observed strengthening is more prominent in OECD countries, as opposed to non-OECD countries, and in the Manufacturing sector, compared to non-Manufacturing industries.

Labour productivity stagnated in the UK in the period between the financial crisis and the emergence of Covid-19. Labour supply and employment grew strongly over the same period, driven primarily by net inward migration. While labour productivity should be independent of labour supply in the long run, this need not be the case in the medium run while capital per worker adjusts. Exploiting a range of evidence, we conclude that around 4 pp of the estimated 20% shortfall in productivity from its previous trend that had emerged by 2019 might be explained by increased labour supply, with a slowdown in TFP growth accounting for most of the shortfall.

Teenage childbearing is a common incident in developed countries. However, teenage births are much more likely in the USA than in any other industrialized country. Most of these births are delivered by female teenagers from low-income families. The hypothesis put forward here is that the welfare state (a set of redistributive institutions) has a significant influence on teenage childbearing behavior. We develop an economic theory of parental investments and the risky sexual behavior of teenagers. The model is estimated to fit stylized facts about income inequality, intergenerational mobility, and the sexual behavior of teenagers in the USA. The welfare state institutions are introduced via tax and public education expenditure functions derived from US data. In a quantitative experiment, we impose Norwegian taxes and education spending in the economic environment. The Norwegian welfare state institutions go a long way in explaining the differences in teenage birth rates between the USA and Norway.

This paper studies the process of labour market formation in the tourism industry in Spain. Results show that tourism regions diverged in their capacity to attract local labour, a factor that led to different compositions of the workforce. In the most dynamic regions, circular migration became a key factor as a result of housing shortages, seasonality and labour policy. Tourism agents promoted these flows by different mechanisms such as recruitment at origin and temporary accommodation. Migration benefited growth of firms, natives' upward mobility and migrants' accumulation of capital. However, inequality in the regional labour market and host society increased.

Brexit has cast a long shadow over the UK economy, with its impact masked by the COVID-19 pandemic and the crisis in Ukraine. Disentangling those effects is not straightforward, but that is the aim of the papers contained in this Special Issue. This Special Issue draws upon excellent contributions from some leading academic and policy-oriented researchers, all expert in the macroeconomic impacts of Brexit.

In this article, we use a three-country macroeconomic model of trade, in which we allow for the presence of labour market frictions and heterogeneous firms, to analyse the effects of Brexit on UK productivity. We find that, under the Trade and Cooperation Agreement, UK GDP would have been expected to fall by approximately 7.5% in 2021, that is, as soon as the United Kingdom exited the European Union. Our model suggests that UK GDP would then recover, rising back to a long-run level around 4% below where it would have been had Brexit not happened. This fall in GDP is driven by the negative productivity effects of the implied increase in the costs of trading between the United Kingdom and European Union. Specifically, the increase in trading costs will lead to fewer, higher-productivity, UK firms exporting and reduced competition from EU firms in the UK domestic market allows more ‘low productivity’ firms to remain in the market.